inflation Archives

December 2024: Inflation rises, growth stalls, markets shift

Posted on 8 January 202528 March 2025 by Sophie Soraf

Headline inflation at eight-month high

Release of the latest inflation statistics showed consumer prices are now rising at their fastest rate since March 2024, while last month also saw Bank of England (BoE) policymakers become more divided over the need to cut interest rates.

Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate – which compares prices in the current month with the same period a year earlier – rose from 2.3% in October to 2.6% in November. ONS said the rise was primarily driven by an increase in motor fuel and clothing prices, which was only partially offset by a drop in air fares.

November’s CPI rise was, though, in line with expectations expressed in a Reuters poll of economists. Additionally, there was some relief in relation to underlying price pressures, with services inflation – a measure closely monitored by the BoE – remaining unchanged at 5.0%.

The latest decision of the BoE’s interest-rate setting body was announced a day after the inflation release, with the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voting by a 6-3 majority to maintain Bank Rate at 4.75%. The three dissenting voices each preferred an immediate 0.25 percentage point reduction in order to boost growth, but the six-strong majority, which included BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, expressed concern about wage growth and ‘inflation persistence.’

Commenting after announcing the Committee’s decision, Mr Bailey said he still believed the path for interest rates was “downwards.” However, he added, “We think a gradual approach to future interest rate cuts remains right, but with the heightened uncertainty in the economy we can’t commit to when or by how much we will cut rates in the coming year.”

The next MPC meeting is scheduled for early next month, with the outcome of the Committee’s deliberations due to be announced on 6 February.

UK economy has ‘largely stalled’

Figures released last month by ONS showed the UK economy shrank for a second successive month in October, while more recent survey evidence suggests it remained ‘largely stalled’ as 2024 drew to an end.

The latest official monthly gross domestic product (GDP) statistics revealed that economic output declined by 0.1% in October, defying analysts’ expectations for a small monthly expansion. October’s decline followed a similar-sized contraction in September and represents the first consecutive monthly drop in GDP since March and April 2020.

Revised data subsequently released by ONS also revealed that the economy performed worse than previously thought during earlier parts of last year. The updated statistics showed a growth rate of 0.4% across the second quarter, down from a previously published figure of 0.5%, while the economy is now estimated to have produced zero growth in the third quarter of 2024, down from an initial estimate of 0.1%.

The current economic malaise was also highlighted in updated growth projections published last month by the BoE. The Bank now estimates the UK will have seen no growth during the final three months of 2024.

Preliminary data from the latest S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also points to a loss of economic momentum. While December’s flash headline growth indicator did remain at November’s 50.5 level, this left the Index only marginally above the 50.0 no change threshold.

S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “The flash PMI data for December indicate the UK economy remained largely stalled at the end of 2024. New orders fell in December for the first time in over a year, reflecting a deterioration in demand as a deepening downturn in manufacturing shows growing signs of spreading to the services economy.”

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

Although most major indices closed 2024 higher year-on-year, trading at month end was mixed.

US markets outperformed Europe in 2024. In the US, major indices registered double-digit annual gains, supported by interest rate cuts, Trump’s return to the White House and enthusiasm for AI. The Dow closed the year over 12% higher on 42,544.22, while the tech-orientated NASDAQ closed the year up over 28% on 19,310.79.

Meanwhile, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed the year over 8% higher on 4,895.98. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 ended the year on 39,894.54, gaining over 19% in 2024, despite retreating on the last trading day of the year from a five-month high reached the previous session.

In the UK, the blue-chip FTSE 100 index closed December on 8,173.02, a gain of just under 6% for 2024 as a whole, locking in gains for a fourth straight year. The domestically focused FTSE 250 closed the year just under 5% higher on 20,622.61, while the FTSE AIM closed on 719.63, a loss of over 5% in the year.

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.20 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.25 against sterling and at $1.03 against the euro.

Gold closed the year trading around $2,637 a troy ounce, an annual gain of over 26%, its strongest since 2010. The price was supported by various factors including central bank reserve purchases and rising geopolitical tensions, prompting investors to seek safe haven assets. Brent crude closed the year trading at around $74 a barrel, an annual loss of over 2%. At year end, robust economic data from China and a weakening US dollar supported the oil price.

Index	Value (31/12/24)	Movement since 29/11/24
FTSE 100	8,173.02	-1.38%
FTSE 250	20,622.61	-0.72%
FTSE AIM	719.63	-1.76%
Euro Stoxx 50	4,895.98	+1.91%
NASDAQ Composite	19,310.79	+0.48%
Dow Jones	42,544.22	-5.27%
Nikkei 225	39,894.54	+4.41%

*Closing value 30/12/24 (market was closed 31/12/24)

Retail sales post small November rise

Official retail sales data released last month showed a small rise in sales volumes during November, although more recent survey evidence continues to show a tough retail environment despite another modest rise in consumer sentiment.

Figures released last month by ONS revealed that retail sales volumes rose by 0.2% in November. While this did represent a bounce back from October’s 0.7% decline, the figure was below economists’ expectations and left sales in the three months to November up by only 0.3%, the weakest performance according to this measure since the three months to June 2024.

Evidence from the recently released CBI Distributive Trades Survey also suggests retailers had a relatively weak run-up to Christmas. The CBI said retailers had ‘endured a gloomy festive period’ and looking ahead, they expected ‘sales to fall again in January’ with wholesalers and motor traders ‘braced for sharper sales declines.’

Data from GfK’s latest consumer confidence index, however, did offer the retail sector some hope for the new year, with the long-running survey showing households becoming modestly more cheery about their finances for the year ahead. Overall, December’s headline sentiment figure rose to -17 from -18 in November, lifting consumer morale to a four-month high.

Wage growth surprise: vacancies fall again

The latest batch of labour market statistics revealed a surprise pick-up in pay growth as well as a fall in both the level of job vacancies and the number of staff on payrolls.

According to the latest ONS data, average weekly earnings excluding bonuses rose at an annual rate of 5.2% in the three months to October 2024; this was up from 4.9% across the preceding three-month period and higher than a consensus forecast of 5.0% from a Reuters poll of economists. ONS Director of Statistics Liz McKeown commented, “After slowing steadily for over a year, growth in pay excluding bonuses increased slightly in the latest period driven by stronger growth in private sector pay.”

Job vacancies, however, fell once again, with 31,000 fewer reported in the September–November period compared to the previous three months. The latest release also revealed a drop in the number of people on payrolls, with provisional data indicating a 35,000 decline in November.

Last month, Reed Chief Executive Officer, James Reed, also noted that his firm had seen a “significant decline” in the number of jobs being advertised, while a number of surveys highlighted a slowdown in recruitment activity in the face of rising employers’ National Insurance Contributions.

Key takeaways:

Data from the ONS shows the CPI 12-month rate rose from 2.3% in October to 2.6% in November
UK economic output declined 0.1% in October, defying analysts’ expectations for a small monthly expansion.
Retailers ‘endured a gloomy festive period’ according to the CBI, who expect ‘sales to fall again in January’

All details are correct at the time of writing (02 January 2025)

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from, taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.

This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Tees is a trading name of Tees Financial Limited which is regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority—registered number 211314.

Tees Financial Limited is registered in England and Wales—registered number 4342506.

Economic review – November 2024: Gradual shifts amid growing challenges

Posted on 3 December 202428 March 2025 by Sophie Soraf

Interest rates set to fall more gradually

Last month, the Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates for only the second time since 2020 but also warned future reductions were likely to be more gradual due to the prospect of inflation creeping higher next year.

Following its latest meeting, which concluded on 6 November, the BoE’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by an 8-1 majority to reduce rates by 0.25 percentage points, bringing the Bank Rate down to 4.75%.

Commenting after announcing the news, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey suggested rates were likely to “continue to fall gradually from here”. However, he did caution that they would not be reduced “too quickly or by too much.” Mr Bailey was also at pains to emphasise the word “gradual” and added that the reason for such an approach was that “there are a lot of risks out there in the world at large and also domestically.”

Alongside the rate announcement, the governor unveiled the BoE’s latest economic forecast, which takes into account the Chancellor’s budget measures. The updated projections suggest the policies announced in the Budget are likely to boost the headline rate of inflation by almost half a percentage point at its peak in just over two years’ time and result in it taking a year longer for inflation to return to the Bank’s 2% target level.

The latest inflation data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) two weeks after the MPC announcement revealed that the annual headline rate jumped from 1.7% in September to 2.3% in October. While this sharp increase was largely driven by October’s energy price hike, the figure did come in slightly ahead of analysts’ expectations. This overshoot, combined with the Governor’s comments, has undoubtedly increased the prospect of interest rates remaining unchanged following the MPC’s final meeting on 19 December.

UK economy losing momentum

ONS released gross domestic product (GDP) statistics last month showing the economy barely grew between July and September, while more recent survey evidence points to a further loss of economic momentum.

The latest GDP figures revealed that UK economic output rose by just 0.1% across the whole of the third quarter. This figure was weaker than economists had expected and represents a sharp slowdown from the 0.5% growth rate recorded during the second quarter of the year.

A monthly breakdown of the data also showed the economy actually contracted by 0.1% during September alone, with ONS reporting a significant drop in manufacturing output while the services sector flatlined. A number of economists blamed September’s weakness on Budget uncertainty which was felt to have impacted the behaviour of both firms and households.

Data from a recently released economic survey also suggests business optimism continued to slide in the weeks following October’s Budget. Indeed, the flash headline growth indicator from the S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.9 in November from 51.8 in October, the first time in 13 months the figure had dipped below the 50 threshold, denoting a contraction in private sector output.

S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “The first survey on the health of the economy after the Budget makes for gloomy reading. Although only marginal, the downturn in output represents a marked contrast to the robust growth rates seen back in the summer and are accompanied by deepening concern about prospects for the year ahead.”

Last month also saw the BoE publish revised economic growth projections. While the Bank did trim this year’s forecast from 1.25% to 1.0%, it is now predicting a stronger 2025, with next year’s projected growth figure upped to 1.5% from a previous forecast of 1.0%.

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

At the end of November, investors closely monitored the threat of possible US tariffs and the ongoing political turmoil in France. On the last trading day of the month, European markets closed slightly higher as inflation estimates met expectations, while the FTSE 100 was flat. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, US stocks tempered from record highs reached earlier in the week.

In the UK, the FTSE 100 index closed the month on 8,287.30, a gain of 2.18%, while the FTSE 250 closed November 1.88% higher on 20,771.57. The FTSE AIM closed on 732.49, a loss of 0.63% in the month. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed November on 4,804.40, down 0.48%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 closed the month on 38,208.03, a monthly loss of 2.23%.

In the US, President-elect Donald Trump has outlined plans to place levies on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, with concerns that his plans could extend to other regions. The Dow Jones closed November up 7.54% on 44,910.65, while the tech-orientated NASDAQ closed the month up 6.21% on 19,218.17.

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.20 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.26 against sterling and at $1.05 against the euro.

Brent crude closed November trading at around $68 a barrel, a loss over the month of 5.40%. Oil prices fluctuated at month end as speculation over OPEC+’s production plans heightened in advance of their December meeting. Gold closed the month trading at around $2,683 a troy ounce, a monthly loss of 1.84%.

*****

Index	Value	Movement since 31/10/24
FTSE 100	8,287.30	+2.18%
FTSE 250	20,771.57	+1.88%
FTSE AIM	732.49	-1.63%
Euro Stoxx 50	4,804.40	-0.48%
NASDAQ Composite	19,218.17	+6.21%
Dow Jones	44,910.65	+7.54%
Nikkei 225	38,208.03	-2.23%

Unemployment rate rises

Official figures published last month revealed a rise in the rate of unemployment, although ONS has warned that the data should be treated with some caution due to smaller survey sample sizes increasing data volatility.

The latest ONS labour market release showed the unemployment rate stood at 4.3% between July to September 2024; this compares to 4.0% for the previous three-month period. The data also revealed that the number of payrolled employees decreased by 9,000 in the three months to September, with early estimates suggesting the figure dropped by a further 5,000 in October.

Job vacancies also fell again, with 35,000 fewer reported in the August–October period compared to the previous three months. Overall, the statistics agency said that the latest batch of data points to a ‘continued easing of the labour market.’

ONS is currently in the process of overhauling the statistical methodology used to calculate its labour market figures – research released last month by the Resolution Foundation highlighted the current problems surrounding data reliability. According to the think tank’s analysis of tax office, self-employment and new population data, the official statistics may currently be failing to count as many as a million people who are believed to be in work.

Retail sales fall by more than expected

The latest official retail sales figures showed sales volumes declined ahead of October’s Budget, while more recent survey data points to ‘disappointing’ sales in November, too.

Figures released last month by ONS revealed that retail sales volumes fell by 0.7% in October, following a period of growth across the previous three months. While analysts had predicted a sales dip, October’s decline was larger than expected. ONS said the fall was driven by a ‘notably poor month for clothing stores’ but also noted that retailers across the board reported consumers holding back spending ahead of the Budget.

Data from GfK’s latest consumer confidence index did offer the retail sector some cheer, though, with the long-running survey reporting less pessimism post-Budget. November’s headline figure rose to its highest level since August, with growth recorded across all five components of the survey, suggesting consumers may have more appetite for spending in the run-up to Christmas.

November’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey, however, found retailers expect trading conditions to remain tough. While the survey did acknowledge ‘some improvement’ in the retail environment since the middle of the year, it also reported ‘disappointing sales’ in November with volumes expected to remain below seasonal norms in December too.

All details are correct at the time of writing (2 December 2024)

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.

Tees Financial Limited is registered in England and Wales—registered number 4342506.

Economy set for short term Budget boost

Posted on 4 November 202428 March 2025 by Sophie Soraf

Economic review October 2024

New economic projections produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) suggest the Labour administration’s first Budget will provide only a ‘temporary boost’ to UK economic output.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves revealed the independent fiscal watchdog’s latest forecast during her Autumn Budget delivered to the House of Commons on 30 October. The updated figures predict the economy will expand by 1.1% this year and 2.0% in 2025, slightly higher than the OBR’s March forecast, with growth then falling back across the remainder of this Parliament. The OBR concludes that the Budget’s overall impact will leave ‘the level of output broadly unchanged at the forecast horizon.’

Before the Budget, the latest monthly gross domestic product (GDP) data released revealed that the UK economy returned to growth after two consecutive months of stagnation. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures showed the economy expanded by 0.2% in August, with all major sectors posting some growth. Despite August’s pick up, ONS warned that the broader picture in recent months was one of ‘slowing growth’ compared to the year’s first half.

This loss of momentum was also highlighted in the latest S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), with its preliminary headline growth indicator falling to 51.7 in October from 52.6 the previous month. While remaining above the 50 threshold that denotes expansion in private sector output, this latest reading was the lowest since last November.

Commenting on the survey, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “Business activity growth has slumped to its lowest for nearly a year in October as gloomy government rhetoric and uncertainty ahead of the Budget dampened business confidence and spending. The early PMI data are indicative of the economy growing at a meagre 0.1% quarterly rate in October.”

UK inflation falls sharply

Official consumer price statistics released last month revealed a larger-than-expected fall in inflation, potentially paving the way for further interest rate cuts in the coming months.

ONS data showed the annual headline rate of inflation dropped from 2.2% in August to 1.7% in September. The fall, which took the rate to its lowest level since April 2021, was primarily driven by lower airfares and petrol prices.

The decline was more significant than economists had anticipated, with the consensus forecast in a Reuters poll predicting a September reading of 1.9%. It also took the figure decisively below the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target, and further fuelled market expectations for more interest rate cuts this year.

Last month, however, two of the BoE’s nine-member rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) advocated the continuation of a cautious approach to monetary easing. Megan Greene, for instance, suggested volatile components had driven September’s sharp inflation fall and again stated her preference for rate cuts to be gradual, while Catherine Mann said the cooling of price growth still had “a long way to go” for the Bank to hit its 2% target over the medium term.

In early October, though, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey (another MPC member) told the Guardian that, provided there was further welcome news on the inflation front, he felt the Bank could become “a bit more aggressive” in its rate-cutting approach. In a recent Reuters survey, 72 economists said they believe a quarter-point rate reduction would be announced after this month’s MPC meeting on 7 November.

Market expectations for the speed of monetary easing over the coming 12 months, however, eased back after the Budget, as the Chancellor’s big spending plans raised fears of a pick-up in inflationary pressures next year.

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

UK indices moved lower on the last day of October as markets continued to digest the Budget announcement, during which Chancellor Rachel Reeves unveiled £40bn of tax rises. On 31 October, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) warned about the likelihood of further tax rises following the Budget.

The FTSE 100 index closed October on 8,110.10, a loss of 1.54%, while the mid cap focused FTSE 250 closed the month 3.16% lower on 20,388.96. The FTSE AIM closed on 737.10, a loss of 0.45% in the month. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed the month on 4,827.63, down 3.46%. At month end, the Bank of Japan retained interest rates at their ultra-low level as it monitors global economic developments and potential risks to domestic recovery. The Nikkei 225 closed October on 39,081.25, a monthly gain of 3.06%.

With voters poised to take to polling stations stateside, robust economic data at month end confused the backdrop for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts, as US stocks and government bonds fell. The Dow Jones closed the month down 1.34% on 41,763.46. The tech-orientated NASDAQ closed the month down 0.52% on 18,095.15.

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.18 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.28 against sterling and at $1.08 against the euro.

Gold closed October trading at $2,734.15 a troy ounce, a monthly gain of 3.96%. Towards the end of the month, the precious metal traded higher as demand surged ahead of Diwali and the US election; uncertainty over the election outcome has made investors focus on the safe haven asset. Brent crude closed the month trading at $72.62 a barrel, a gain over the month of 1.35%. Oil prices stabilised at month end after rallying due to robust fuel demand in the US and reports that OPEC+ may delay an increase in output.

Index	Value (31/10/24)	Movement since 30/09/24
FTSE 100	8,110.10	-1.54%
FTSE 250	20,388.96	-3.16%
FTSE AIM	737.10	-0.45%
Euro Stoxx 50	4,827.63	-3.46%
NASDAQ Composite	18,095.15	-0.52%
Dow Jones	41,763.46	-1.34%
Nikkei 225	39,081.25	+3.06%

Retail sales rise for third successive month

Recently published ONS statistics showed that retail sales rose for the third month in a row in September, although more up-to-date survey data does point to a recent slowdown as consumers paused spending ahead of the Budget.

The latest official retail sales figures revealed that total sales volumes rose by 0.3% in September, with ONS saying tech stores were the main driver of growth, reflecting a sales boost from the new iPhone launch. September’s growth defied economists’ expectations for a monthly 0.3% decline and, combined with July and August’s strong gains, resulted in sales volumes rising by 1.9% across the whole of the third quarter, the joint largest increase since mid-2021.

More recent survey evidence, however, does suggest consumers became more cautious in the run-up to the Budget. The latest GfK Consumer Confidence index, for instance, found that sentiment fell to a seven-month low in October as concerns over possible tax hikes hit confidence.

Data from last month’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey also points to a recent dip in consumer spending. The CBI noted that retail sales volumes ‘slipped back slightly in October,’ adding that some retailers had highlighted ‘increased consumer caution’ ahead of the Autumn Budget.

More signs of a cooling jobs market

The latest batch of labour market numbers revealed fresh evidence of a softening in the UK jobs market with both an easing in pay growth and a further fall in the overall level of vacancies.

Statistics released by ONS last month showed that average weekly earnings excluding bonuses rose at an annual rate of 4.9% in the three months to the end of August. This figure was down from 5.1% in the previous three-month period and represents the slowest rate of pay growth for over two years.

Adding to signs of a cooling jobs market, the release also revealed another decline in the level of vacancies. In total, ONS said there were 34,000 fewer job vacancies reported between July and September 2024 compared to the previous three-month period; this represents the 27th consecutive monthly fall in the number of vacancies.

Last month also saw a number of recruitment firms report a more recent slowdown. Robert Walters, for instance, noted a pause in jobs market activity in the run-up to the Autumn Budget, while James Reed, CEO of recruitment consultancy Reed, said the UK labour market was experiencing “a slow-motion car crash” with firms lacking the confidence to hire new staff.

All details are correct at the time of writing (1 November 2024)

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.

Tees Financial Limited is registered in England and Wales. Registered number 4342506.

Interest rate adjustments and mortgage market shifts

Posted on 2 October 202428 March 2025 by Sophie Soraf

The Bank of England’s recent suggestion of a potential “soft landing” for the UK economy has provided a bit of hope amongst the ongoing economic challenges. While this news has been welcomed by many, the lingering effects of high-interest rates continue to impact various sectors, particularly the housing market.

In response to the changing economic landscape, mortgage lenders have begun to adjust their rates. Several lenders have recently announced reductions in their mortgage rates, sparking renewed interest among prospective homebuyers. This downward trend in rates has led to increased affordability for some, making it more accessible for individuals and families to enter the property market.

Navigating uncertainty

Despite the recent positive developments, there remains a degree of uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of this. Several factors continue to show challenges to the broader economy, including:

Inflationary pressures: While inflation rates have shown signs of easing, they remain elevated, impacting consumer spending and business confidence.
Geopolitical tensions: Global conflicts and economic uncertainties can influence investor attitudes and market stability.
Interest rates: The Bank of England’s monetary policy decisions will continue to shape the interest rate environment, affecting borrowing costs for both consumers and businesses.

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At Tees, we believe that financial and legal advice should empower you to make informed decisions. Our goal is to provide you with the information and options you need to confidently navigate your retirement years. Toni’s expertise and personalised approach will help you understand the complexities of later life planning and make informed choices.

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We understand that planning for care funding can be a complex and emotional process. Our team is committed to making this process as straightforward as possible. We work closely with our clients to understand their specific needs and tailor our advice accordingly. Through careful planning, it may be possible to structure your finances in a way that allows you to pay for care fees without depleting all of your assets.

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This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. It is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns and all investments involve risks. Some information quoted was obtained from external sources we consider to be reliable.

Tees is a trading name of Tees Financial Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered number 211314. Tees Financial Limited is registered in England and Wales. Registered number 4342506.

Unexpected economic boost: UK growth outpaces forecasts

Posted on 6 August 202428 March 2025 by Sophie Soraf

Economic Review July 2024

Figures released last month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the UK economy grew faster in May than had been predicted, while survey evidence points to a more recent post-election pick-up in business activity.

The latest gross domestic product (GDP) statistics revealed that economic output rose by 0.4% in May, twice the level forecast in a Reuters poll of economists. May’s figure also represented a strong rebound from the zero-growth rate recorded in April, with a broad-based increase in output as the services, manufacturing, and construction sectors all posted positive rates of growth.

ONS also noted that growth was relatively strong in the three months to May, with GDP rising by 0.9% in comparison to the previous three-month period. This represents the UK economy’s fastest growth rate for more than two years.

Evidence from a closely watched economic survey also suggests private sector output picked up last month following a lull in the run-up to July’s General Election. The preliminary headline growth indicator from the latest S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 52.7 in July, slightly ahead of analysts’ expectations and up from a six-month low of 52.3 in June. Manufacturing output was particularly strong, with this sector expanding at its fastest rate in almost two and a half years.

Commenting on the findings, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “The flash PMI survey data for July signal an encouraging start to the second half of the year, with output, order books and employment all growing at faster rates amid rebounding business confidence. The first post-election business survey paints a welcoming picture for the new government, with companies operating across manufacturing and services having gained optimism about the future and reporting a renewed surge in demand.”

Fresh signs of cooling jobs market

Last month’s release of labour market statistics revealed further signs of a softening in the UK jobs market with pay growth easing and another drop in the overall number of vacancies.

Recently released ONS figures showed that average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, rose at an annual rate of 5.7% in the three months to May. Although this was in line with analysts’ expectations, it did represent a modest decline from the 6.0% recorded during the previous three-month period and was the slowest reported rate of pay growth since the summer of 2022.

ONS said the latest release suggested pay growth is now showing ‘signs of slowing again’ although it also pointed out that, in real terms, wage growth still stands at a two-and-a-half-year high. Indeed, after adjusting for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs, regular pay rose by 2.5% in the three months to May.

The data also revealed a further fall in the number of job vacancies, with 30,000 fewer reported in the April–June period compared to the previous three months. While at 889,000, the total is still significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, this latest fall was the 24th successive monthly decline in the overall level of vacancies.

ONS highlighted other signs of ‘cooling’ in the labour market as well, with growth in the number of employees on the payroll said to be ‘weakening over the medium term.’ Additionally, while the latest release did show the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.4%, ONS noted that the rate has been ‘gradually increasing.’

The statistics agency also provided an update on its plans to improve reliability of the labour market data. A switch to a new version of its Labour Force Survey, which had been due to take place in September, has now been delayed until next year.

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

On the last day of July, US equities were supported as investors contemplated the latest move from the Federal Reserve to retain rates, with indicators from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that a September cut “could be on the table.”

The tech-oriented NASDAQ responded positively after a challenging few days as initial earnings from some tech mega caps disappointed. The NASDAQ closed July down 0.75% on 17,599.40, while the Dow Jones closed the month up 4.41% on 40,842.79.

The UK’s blue-chip FTSE 100 had a boost on 31 July, with a series of strong headline earnings supporting, while traders await the Bank of England’s next interest rate decision. The index closed the month on 8,367.98, a gain of 2.50% during July, while the FTSE 250 closed the month 6.48% higher on 21,600.71. The FTSE AIM closed on 787.02, a gain of 2.96% in the month. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed July on 4,872.94, down 0.43%. The Japanese Nikkei 225 closed the month on 39,101.82, a monthly loss of 1.22%.

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.18 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.28 against sterling and at $1.08 against the euro.

Brent crude closed July trading at $80.91 a barrel, a loss over the month of 4.56%. With Middle East conflicts escalating, crude prices were impacted as markets closely watch geopolitical developments. Gold closed the month trading at $2,426.30 a troy ounce, a monthly gain of 4.09%.

Index	Value (31/07/24)	Movement since 28/06/24
FTSE 100	8,367.98	+2.50%
FTSE 250	21,600.71	+6.48%
FTSE AIM	787.02	+2.96%
Euro Stoxx 50	4,872.94	-0.43%
NASDAQ Composite	17,599.40	-0.75%
Dow Jones	40,842.79	+4.41%
Nikkei 225	39,101.82	-1.22%

Headline inflation rate holds steady

Consumer price statistics published last month by ONS showed that the UK headline rate of inflation was unchanged in June defying analysts’ expectations of a slight fall.

According to the latest inflation figures, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate – which compares prices in the current month with the same period a year earlier – remained at 2.0% in June. This was marginally above the 1.9% consensus forecast taken from a Reuters poll of economists.

The largest downward pressure on June’s CPI rate came from the clothing and footwear sector, which ONS said was due to a higher level of discounting in this year’s summer sales compared to 2023. Hotel prices, however, rose by a significantly greater extent this June than last year, while a comparatively smaller fall in the costs of second-hand cars also put upward pressure on the headline rate.

Just prior to release of June’s data, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the UK was among a number of countries witnessing some ‘persistence’ in inflation, particularly in relation to services inflation. The IMF added that this was ‘complicating monetary policy normalisation’ with the ‘upside risks to inflation’ raising the prospects of interest rates staying ‘higher for even longer.’

Cooler weather hits retail sector

The latest official retail sales statistics revealed declining sales volumes after unseasonably cool weather deterred shoppers. At the same time, more recent survey data suggests the retail environment remains challenging.

ONS figures released last month showed that total retail sales volumes fell by 1.2% in June, following strong growth during May. ONS said June saw a decline across most sectors, particularly those sensitive to weather changes such as department stores and clothes shops. Retailers blamed poor weather and low footfall, as well as election uncertainty, for dampening sales.

Evidence from the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey shows trading conditions have remained difficult, with its headline measure of sales volumes in the year to July dropping to -43% from -24% the previous month. The CBI described July as a ‘disappointing’ month for retailers, blaming a combination of ‘unfavourable weather conditions’ and ‘ongoing market uncertainty.’

The survey also found that the retail sector expects the weak outlook to continue this month, although August’s fall in sales volumes is forecast to be slower (-32%). The CBI also noted some glimmers of optimism, with several retailers expressing hopes for ‘an improvement in market conditions post-general election.’

All details are correct at the time of writing (1 August 2024)

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice, and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individually tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of relief from taxation are currently applied or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the investor’s individual circumstances. No part of this document may be reproduced without prior permission.

This material is intended for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Tees is a trading name of Tees Financial Limited, which is regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered number 211314.

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How inflation impacts your finances

Posted on 8 August 202230 March 2025 by Sophie Soraf

Following a sustained period of historically low inflation, the recent upsurge in price pressures has vividly highlighted the impact inflation can wreak on people’s finances. A sharp rise in the cost of living effectively takes a large chunk out of the purchasing power of money and thereby erodes the real value of cash savings. It is therefore important to understand the concept of inflation and the impact it has on your wealth. Here, we consider these issues and look at the potential benefits of longer-term investment as a way of protecting your money from the effects of inflation.

Inflation is a term used to describe the increase in the general level of prices for goods and services over time, with the rate of inflation quantifying how quickly prices are rising. There is no single approach to measuring inflation, partly as figures differ depending upon which specific bundle of goods and services are included in the calculations. However, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes a number of consumer price indices each month which provide its latest estimate of inflationary trends. The UK’s official headline measure is the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate which compares prices in the current month with the same period a year earlier.

Measure inflation

A good way of understanding how a price index works is to think of an extremely large shopping basket containing a mix of the various goods and services a typical household buys – the price index basically shows changes to the overall cost of that basket over time. For the CPI, prices for around 700 things people regularly buy are recorded each month. These cover a variety of items including a loaf of bread and ready-meals, the cost of a cinema ticket and a pint at the local pub, as well as larger items such as a holiday and a car. To calculate the index, ONS compares the current cost of the basket with what it was a year ago – the change in price level is the annual rate of inflation.

The impact of high inflation

A healthy economy generally requires inflation to be low and stable. While a small amount of inflation is considered helpful, high and unstable rates can cause extreme economic difficulties as it erodes the purchasing power of household finances and makes it difficult for people to plan how much they can spend, save or invest. In the UK, the government has a 2% target for how much prices should go up each year with the Bank of England tasked with keeping the figure around that level. The Bank’s principal tool for maintaining a low and stable inflation rate is to raise or lower interest rates.

What is “bank rate”?

Bank Rate is the most important interest rate in the UK and has a significant impact across many aspects of the economy. It is sometimes referred to as the Bank of England Base Rate and is set by the central bank’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee. The rate directly influences other interest rates, including the lending and savings rates high street banks and building societies offer their customers. The level of the Bank Rate therefore ultimately determines both the cost of mortgages and loans, and how much people can expect to receive on savings held in deposit-based accounts.

Interest rates and inflation

Economic theory shows there is an ‘inverse’ relationship between inflation and interest rates: in other words, when interest rates are low inflation tends to rise, and when rates are high inflation tends to fall. This is because high interest rates make it more expensive for people to borrow money and encourages them to save, which means they typically spend less on goods and services, and this results in prices rising more slowly; and vice versa. So if prices are deemed to be increasing too rapidly, the Bank of England will typically raise interest rates in order to try to slow inflation down.

Purchasing power

When the rate of inflation is low, its impact can seem relatively modest, but when inflation is high it can drastically erode the purchasing power of money. For example, if the rate of inflation is 1%, then the price of a loaf of bread that cost £1 a year ago would now be £1.01. However, if inflation is running at 10%, the price of the same loaf would rise to £1.10. In other words, households can buy less for the same amount of money or, to put it another way, money has effectively lost value.

shopping carts

Inflation makes things more expensive over time.

Impact on savings

Inflation has a similar devaluing effect on deposit-based savings balances. For instance, a saver who held £10,000 in a building society account a year ago earning a rate of 1%, would receive £100 in interest and thereby see their total balance rise to £10,100. However, if inflation was running at 10% then the same £10,000 worth of goods and services that could have been bought a year earlier would now cost £11,000. So, although the saver may feel they have earned £100, when factoring in the effects of inflation, the value of their cash savings has actually declined by £900 in real terms.

Investment potential

While cash savings will always be important, particularly as a source of rainy-day funds, in the current economic climate people holding a large proportion of their assets in cash look set to lose money in real terms. For anyone planning to put money aside for a number of years, it may therefore be worth considering investments as a potential way to protect capital from the effects of inflation. Although past performance is no guarantee of future profits, stock market investments have tended to produce returns that could potentially inflation-proof money over the longer term, providing savers are prepared to take some degree of risk.

Tax-efficient investments

As well as potentially offering protection from inflation, some investment products also enjoy significant tax advantages that make them particularly attractive investment propositions. Both pensions and stocks and shares ISAs fall within this category.

Pensions

Investing via a pension is one of the most tax-efficient methods of saving for the long term as investors receive tax relief at their highest marginal rate of Income Tax on all contributions made subject to annual and lifetime allowances. This means that some of your earnings which would have gone to the government as tax are instead diverted to boost your pension pot. This effectively results in it costing you less to save more in a pension plan.

Stocks and shares ISAs

Individual Savings Accounts (ISAs) are another tax-efficient investment option and provide greater flexibility than a pension as they allow access to your money before the age of 55. Investors can save up to £20,000 each tax year in a stocks and shares ISA with the money having the potential to grow free of UK Income Tax and Capital Gains Tax. These products can be a particularly good way to save for medium or long-term financial goals, such as a wedding or new car.

real growth

This graph shows the effect of a 2% inflation rate on £100 over a 40-year period with cash assumed to earn no interest – maybe kept under your mattress! A growth rate of 7% per annum is assumed for equities but is for illustrative purposes only and not an indication of future performance. After 40 years, the initial £100 can only buy goods that would be worth just under £45 at today’s prices, compared to an equity investment which would have the purchasing power of £704.

growth of 1 pound

Obviously, very few of us would keep cash under the mattress, but even with cash deposits earning 1% a year, £1 would only be worth £1.49 after 40 years if held in cash, or over 10 times that amount if invested in equities, assuming a growth rate of 7% p.a.

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Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

Index

Value (31/12/24)

Movement since 29/11/24

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Interest rates set to fall more gradually

UK economy losing momentum

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

Index

Value

Movement since 31/10/24

Unemployment rate rises

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Economic review October 2024

UK inflation falls sharply

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

Index

Value (31/10/24)

Movement since 30/09/24

Retail sales rise for third successive month

More signs of a cooling jobs market

Navigating uncertainty

Care funding: A personalised approach

Equity release: Achieving your financial goals

Economic Review July 2024

Fresh signs of cooling jobs market

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

Index

Value (31/07/24)

Movement since 28/06/24

Headline inflation rate holds steady

Cooler weather hits retail sector

Measure inflation

The impact of high inflation

What is “bank rate”?

Interest rates and inflation

Purchasing power

Impact on savings

Investment potential

Tax-efficient investments

Pensions

Stocks and shares ISAs