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Author: Sophie Soraf

The biggest financial asset: Protection

Posted on by Sophie Soraf

What comes to mind when considering an individual’s biggest financial asset? A house? Investments? Perhaps a classic car like the Ferrari 250 GTO? Surprisingly, the most significant financial asset is often overlooked: yourself! For business owners and employees alike, the knowledge, skills, and effort you bring to the table are what drive your income and wealth. As the saying goes, “knowledge is power,” and protecting yourself is essential.

The cornerstone of any financial plan rests on the individual generating the income. Safeguarding your income is crucial—because if it disappears, what then? All financial stability starts with a solid foundation.

To put this in perspective, consider data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS), which estimates that in 2022, the average UK worker aged 16 to 65 could earn up to £606,000 in their lifetime. Despite this, a worrying trend emerges; in 2022, only 35% of the UK population has a life policy in place. This leaves 65% of people unprotected in the event of illness, injury, or worse.

In an unpredictable world, planning for the unexpected is not just prudent; it’s essential. A well-designed protection policy can offer peace of mind and financial security for you and your loved ones.

Whether you’re looking to safeguard your family, secure your income, or provide for future needs, understanding the different  policies and what they protect can help you make informed decisions and seek professional help.

There are four types of protection policies we will talk about:

  1. Life insurance
  2. Income protection
  3. Family income benefit
  4. Critical illness cover

The Importance of Protection:

Life is full of uncertainties. Whilst we cannot predict the future, we can prepare for it. Setting up a protection policy ensures that when life takes an unexpected turn, whether due to illness, injury, or an untimely death, your financial obligations remain covered. Bills still need to be paid, food still needs to be bought, and life must go on.

Protection policies are an essential part of a robust financial plan. They provide support for income loss, cover medical expenses, and ensure that loved ones remain financially secure. Let’s explore the different types of protection available.

Life insurance:

Life insurance is more than just a policy; it’s a promise. It ensures that if the policyholder passes away during the policy term, a lump sum will be paid to their chosen beneficiaries. These proceeds can help alleviate financial hardships during an already difficult time.

Life insurance is especially beneficial for those with dependents, such as children, a partner, or relatives who rely on their income. It can cover significant expenses like:

  • Mortgage repayments
  • Funeral costs
  • Children’s education fees
  • Day-to-day living expenses

The lump sum payout is tax-free and can be used however the beneficiaries see fit. This gives policyholders peace of mind, knowing that their family will remain financially stable even in their absence. For families facing the dual challenges of emotional loss and financial strain, life insurance is a vital safeguard.

Income Protection:

Have you ever considered how you would manage your finances if you could not work due to illness or injury? For most of us in the UK, our income is the greatest financial asset. It pays for the essentials: housing, bills, and food whilst simultaneously enabling us to enjoy life’s luxuries.

According to the ONS, the average gross annual earnings for full-time employees in 2024 was £37,430, so protecting this income for life essentials is vital. However, life is unpredictable, and unforeseen events can disrupt your ability to work.

Income protection insurance provides a safety net in such scenarios. If you are unable to work due to illness, injury, or other circumstances, the policy pays out a regular income—typically between 50% to 70% of your pre-tax earnings. These tax-free payments continue until you recover, retire, or reach the end of the policy term.

This type of coverage supports your everyday expenses and protects other financial assets, such as investments and savings, which you might otherwise need to dip into. Many assume they can rely on savings or family support during tough times, but this isn’t always feasible.

Family Income Benefit:

Family income benefit is a type of life insurance policy aimed towards families and those with dependants, such as children, parents, partners or siblings. It is designed to pay a regular tax-free income to your family if you were to pass away during the term of the policy.

Now what is the difference between Life insurance and Family Income Benefit? They both payout on your death, right?

Yes, however, a family income benefit pays out an ongoing monthly tax-free income, compared to a life insurance that pays out a tax-free lump sum payment.

This can provide stability for the beneficiaries who receive a steady income rather than having to manage a lump sum payout.

This policy ensures a steady cash flow to help your family with daily expenses up until the stated term period. For example, you might choose a 30-year term with a monthly payout of £1,000. If you were to pass away 10 years after taking out the policy, your beneficiaries would receive a tax-free income of £1,000 per month for the next 20 years.

Critical Illness Cover:

Critical illness cover is designed to pay out a tax-free lump sum if you were to get diagnosed with a listed “critical illness” that the policy covers, such as cancer, heart attack or stroke. Treatment for such conditions can be prolonged with the added burden of financial, emotional, physical and mental strain.

You will be entitled to receive the lump sum once you have been diagnosed with a specific illness listed under the policy. Upon receiving the lump-sum payment, it is up to you as to how you use the money, whether you want to pay off the mortgage, daily expenses, home alterations or a health-related cost. This can relieve some, if not all, financial burdens that you can face during a challenging time.

It is always important to remember that with all policies, you are paying for peace of mind for yourself and/or loved ones if the worse were to happen.

If we insure our homes and cars, why would we not insure our lives? By protecting the foundation of our financial structure, which is ourselves, this ensures you and/or loved ones have a level of financial security no matter what challenges life throws at you. You don’t build a house on loose foundations, do you?

Protect yourself – it’s the most valuable thing you can do!

This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. It is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns and all investments involve risks including the risk of possible loss of capital. Some information quoted was obtained from external sources we consider to be reliable.

Tees is a trading name of Tees Financial Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered number 211314. 

Tees Financial Limited is registered in England and Wales. Registered number 4342506.

Economic review – November 2024: Gradual shifts amid growing challenges

Posted on by Sophie Soraf

Interest rates set to fall more gradually

Last month, the Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates for only the second time since 2020 but also warned future reductions were likely to be more gradual due to the prospect of inflation creeping higher next year.

Following its latest meeting, which concluded on 6 November, the BoE’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by an 8-1 majority to reduce rates by 0.25 percentage points, bringing the Bank Rate down to 4.75%.

Commenting after announcing the news, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey suggested rates were likely to “continue to fall gradually from here”. However, he did caution that they would not be reduced “too quickly or by too much.” Mr Bailey was also at pains to emphasise the word “gradual” and added that the reason for such an approach was that “there are a lot of risks out there in the world at large and also domestically.”

Alongside the rate announcement, the governor unveiled the BoE’s latest economic forecast, which takes into account the Chancellor’s budget measures. The updated projections suggest the policies announced in the Budget are likely to boost the headline rate of inflation by almost half a percentage point at its peak in just over two years’ time and result in it taking a year longer for inflation to return to the Bank’s 2% target level.

The latest inflation data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) two weeks after the MPC announcement revealed that the annual headline rate jumped from 1.7% in September to 2.3% in October. While this sharp increase was largely driven by October’s energy price hike, the figure did come in slightly ahead of analysts’ expectations. This overshoot, combined with the Governor’s comments, has undoubtedly increased the prospect of interest rates remaining unchanged following the MPC’s final meeting on 19 December.

UK economy losing momentum

ONS released gross domestic product (GDP) statistics last month showing the economy barely grew between July and September, while more recent survey evidence points to a further loss of economic momentum.

The latest GDP figures revealed that UK economic output rose by just 0.1% across the whole of the third quarter. This figure was weaker than economists had expected and represents a sharp slowdown from the 0.5% growth rate recorded during the second quarter of the year.

A monthly breakdown of the data also showed the economy actually contracted by 0.1% during September alone, with ONS reporting a significant drop in manufacturing output while the services sector flatlined. A number of economists blamed September’s weakness on Budget uncertainty which was felt to have impacted the behaviour of both firms and households.

Data from a recently released economic survey also suggests business optimism continued to slide in the weeks following October’s Budget. Indeed, the flash headline growth indicator from the S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.9 in November from 51.8 in October, the first time in 13 months the figure had dipped below the 50 threshold, denoting a contraction in private sector output.

S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “The first survey on the health of the economy after the Budget makes for gloomy reading. Although only marginal, the downturn in output represents a marked contrast to the robust growth rates seen back in the summer and are accompanied by deepening concern about prospects for the year ahead.”

Last month also saw the BoE publish revised economic growth projections. While the Bank did trim this year’s forecast from 1.25% to 1.0%, it is now predicting a stronger 2025, with next year’s projected growth figure upped to 1.5% from a previous forecast of 1.0%.

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

At the end of November, investors closely monitored the threat of possible US tariffs and the ongoing political turmoil in France. On the last trading day of the month, European markets closed slightly higher as inflation estimates met expectations, while the FTSE 100 was flat. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, US stocks tempered from record highs reached earlier in the week. 

In the UK, the FTSE 100 index closed the month on 8,287.30, a gain of 2.18%, while the FTSE 250 closed November 1.88% higher on 20,771.57. The FTSE AIM closed on 732.49, a loss of 0.63% in the month. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed November on 4,804.40, down 0.48%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 closed the month on 38,208.03, a monthly loss of 2.23%.

In the US, President-elect Donald Trump has outlined plans to place levies on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, with concerns that his plans could extend to other regions. The Dow Jones closed November up 7.54% on 44,910.65, while the tech-orientated NASDAQ closed the month up 6.21% on 19,218.17.

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.20 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.26 against sterling and at $1.05 against the euro.

Brent crude closed November trading at around $68 a barrel, a loss over the month of 5.40%. Oil prices fluctuated at month end as speculation over OPEC+’s production plans heightened in advance of their December meeting. Gold closed the month trading at around $2,683 a troy ounce, a monthly loss of 1.84%.

*****

Index

Value

Movement since 31/10/24

FTSE 1008,287.30+2.18%
FTSE 25020,771.57+1.88%
FTSE AIM732.49-1.63%
Euro Stoxx 504,804.40-0.48%
NASDAQ Composite19,218.17+6.21%
Dow Jones44,910.65+7.54%
Nikkei 22538,208.03-2.23%

Unemployment rate rises

Official figures published last month revealed a rise in the rate of unemployment, although ONS has warned that the data should be treated with some caution due to smaller survey sample sizes increasing data volatility.

The latest ONS labour market release showed the unemployment rate stood at 4.3% between July to September 2024; this compares to 4.0% for the previous three-month period. The data also revealed that the number of payrolled employees decreased by 9,000 in the three months to September, with early estimates suggesting the figure dropped by a further 5,000 in October.

Job vacancies also fell again, with 35,000 fewer reported in the August–October period compared to the previous three months. Overall, the statistics agency said that the latest batch of data points to a ‘continued easing of the labour market.’

ONS is currently in the process of overhauling the statistical methodology used to calculate its labour market figures – research released last month by the Resolution Foundation highlighted the current problems surrounding data reliability. According to the think tank’s analysis of tax office, self-employment and new population data, the official statistics may currently be failing to count as many as a million people who are believed to be in work.

Retail sales fall by more than expected

The latest official retail sales figures showed sales volumes declined ahead of October’s Budget, while more recent survey data points to ‘disappointing’ sales in November, too.

Figures released last month by ONS revealed that retail sales volumes fell by 0.7% in October, following a period of growth across the previous three months. While analysts had predicted a sales dip, October’s decline was larger than expected. ONS said the fall was driven by a ‘notably poor month for clothing stores’ but also noted that retailers across the board reported consumers holding back spending ahead of the Budget.

Data from GfK’s latest consumer confidence index did offer the retail sector some cheer, though, with the long-running survey reporting less pessimism post-Budget. November’s headline figure rose to its highest level since August, with growth recorded across all five components of the survey, suggesting consumers may have more appetite for spending in the run-up to Christmas.

November’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey, however, found retailers expect trading conditions to remain tough. While the survey did acknowledge ‘some improvement’ in the retail environment since the middle of the year, it also reported ‘disappointing sales’ in November with volumes expected to remain below seasonal norms in December too.

All details are correct at the time of writing (2 December 2024)

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.

This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Tees is a trading name of Tees Financial Limited which is regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority—registered number 211314.

Tees Financial Limited is registered in England and Wales—registered number 4342506.

Economy set for short term Budget boost

Posted on by Sophie Soraf

Economic review October 2024

New economic projections produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) suggest the Labour administration’s first Budget will provide only a ‘temporary boost’ to UK economic output.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves revealed the independent fiscal watchdog’s latest forecast during her Autumn Budget delivered to the House of Commons on 30 October. The updated figures predict the economy will expand by 1.1% this year and 2.0% in 2025, slightly higher than the OBR’s March forecast, with growth then falling back across the remainder of this Parliament. The OBR concludes that the Budget’s overall impact will leave ‘the level of output broadly unchanged at the forecast horizon.’

Before the Budget, the latest monthly gross domestic product (GDP) data released revealed that the UK economy returned to growth after two consecutive months of stagnation. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures showed the economy expanded by 0.2% in August, with all major sectors posting some growth. Despite August’s pick up, ONS warned that the broader picture in recent months was one of ‘slowing growth’ compared to the year’s first half.

This loss of momentum was also highlighted in the latest S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), with its preliminary headline growth indicator falling to 51.7 in October from 52.6 the previous month. While remaining above the 50 threshold that denotes expansion in private sector output, this latest reading was the lowest since last November.

Commenting on the survey, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “Business activity growth has slumped to its lowest for nearly a year in October as gloomy government rhetoric and uncertainty ahead of the Budget dampened business confidence and spending. The early PMI data are indicative of the economy growing at a meagre 0.1% quarterly rate in October.”

UK inflation falls sharply

Official consumer price statistics released last month revealed a larger-than-expected fall in inflation, potentially paving the way for further interest rate cuts in the coming months.

ONS data showed the annual headline rate of inflation dropped from 2.2% in August to 1.7% in September. The fall, which took the rate to its lowest level since April 2021, was primarily driven by lower airfares and petrol prices.

The decline was more significant than economists had anticipated, with the consensus forecast in a Reuters poll predicting a September reading of 1.9%. It also took the figure decisively below the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target, and further fuelled market expectations for more interest rate cuts this year.

Last month, however, two of the BoE’s nine-member rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) advocated the continuation of a cautious approach to monetary easing. Megan Greene, for instance, suggested volatile components had driven September’s sharp inflation fall and again stated her preference for rate cuts to be gradual, while Catherine Mann said the cooling of price growth still had “a long way to go” for the Bank to hit its 2% target over the medium term.

In early October, though, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey (another MPC member) told the Guardian that, provided there was further welcome news on the inflation front, he felt the Bank could become “a bit more aggressive” in its rate-cutting approach. In a recent Reuters survey, 72 economists said they believe a quarter-point rate reduction would be announced after this month’s MPC meeting on 7 November.

Market expectations for the speed of monetary easing over the coming 12 months, however, eased back after the Budget, as the Chancellor’s big spending plans raised fears of a pick-up in inflationary pressures next year.

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

UK indices moved lower on the last day of October as markets continued to digest the Budget announcement, during which Chancellor Rachel Reeves unveiled £40bn of tax rises. On 31 October, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) warned about the likelihood of further tax rises following the Budget.

The FTSE 100 index closed October on 8,110.10, a loss of 1.54%, while the mid cap focused FTSE 250 closed the month 3.16% lower on 20,388.96. The FTSE AIM closed on 737.10, a loss of 0.45% in the month. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed the month on 4,827.63, down 3.46%. At month end, the Bank of Japan retained interest rates at their ultra-low level as it monitors global economic developments and potential risks to domestic recovery. The Nikkei 225 closed October on 39,081.25, a monthly gain of 3.06%.

With voters poised to take to polling stations stateside, robust economic data at month end confused the backdrop for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts, as US stocks and government bonds fell. The Dow Jones closed the month down 1.34% on 41,763.46. The tech-orientated NASDAQ closed the month down 0.52% on 18,095.15.

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.18 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.28 against sterling and at $1.08 against the euro.

Gold closed October trading at $2,734.15 a troy ounce, a monthly gain of 3.96%. Towards the end of the month, the precious metal traded higher as demand surged ahead of Diwali and the US election; uncertainty over the election outcome has made investors focus on the safe haven asset. Brent crude closed the month trading at $72.62 a barrel, a gain over the month of 1.35%. Oil prices stabilised at month end after rallying due to robust fuel demand in the US and reports that OPEC+ may delay an increase in output.

Index

Value (31/10/24)

Movement since 30/09/24

FTSE 1008,110.10-1.54%
FTSE 25020,388.96-3.16%
FTSE AIM737.10-0.45%
Euro Stoxx 504,827.63-3.46%
NASDAQ Composite18,095.15-0.52%
Dow Jones41,763.46-1.34%
Nikkei 22539,081.25+3.06%

Retail sales rise for third successive month

Recently published ONS statistics showed that retail sales rose for the third month in a row in September, although more up-to-date survey data does point to a recent slowdown as consumers paused spending ahead of the Budget.

The latest official retail sales figures revealed that total sales volumes rose by 0.3% in September, with ONS saying tech stores were the main driver of growth, reflecting a sales boost from the new iPhone launch. September’s growth defied economists’ expectations for a monthly 0.3% decline and, combined with July and August’s strong gains, resulted in sales volumes rising by 1.9% across the whole of the third quarter, the joint largest increase since mid-2021.

More recent survey evidence, however, does suggest consumers became more cautious in the run-up to the Budget. The latest GfK Consumer Confidence index, for instance, found that sentiment fell to a seven-month low in October as concerns over possible tax hikes hit confidence.

Data from last month’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey also points to a recent dip in consumer spending. The CBI noted that retail sales volumes ‘slipped back slightly in October,’ adding that some retailers had highlighted ‘increased consumer caution’ ahead of the Autumn Budget.

More signs of a cooling jobs market

The latest batch of labour market numbers revealed fresh evidence of a softening in the UK jobs market with both an easing in pay growth and a further fall in the overall level of vacancies.

Statistics released by ONS last month showed that average weekly earnings excluding bonuses rose at an annual rate of 4.9% in the three months to the end of August. This figure was down from 5.1% in the previous three-month period and represents the slowest rate of pay growth for over two years.

Adding to signs of a cooling jobs market, the release also revealed another decline in the level of vacancies. In total, ONS said there were 34,000 fewer job vacancies reported between July and September 2024 compared to the previous three-month period; this represents the 27th consecutive monthly fall in the number of vacancies.

Last month also saw a number of recruitment firms report a more recent slowdown. Robert Walters, for instance, noted a pause in jobs market activity in the run-up to the Autumn Budget, while James Reed, CEO of recruitment consultancy Reed, said the UK labour market was experiencing “a slow-motion car crash” with firms lacking the confidence to hire new staff.

All details are correct at the time of writing (1 November 2024)

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.

This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Tees is a trading name of Tees Financial Limited which is regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered number 211314.

Tees Financial Limited is registered in England and Wales. Registered number 4342506.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ first budget: New policies to boost UK economy

Posted on by Sophie Soraf

“Our mission to grow the economy”

Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, delivered the Labour government’s first Budget on 30 October with a promise to “restore economic stability” and “invest, invest, invest” to promote growth. In her statement, she outlined a number of new tax and spending measures that she said would create “an economy that is growing, creating wealth and opportunity for all.” In total, the Budget will see taxes rise by £40bn.

Economic forecasts

The Chancellor stressed that every Budget she delivers “will be focused on our mission to grow the economy” and outlined seven pillars that will form the government’s growth policy priorities. Key among these is restoring economic stability and increasing investment, while other areas include boosting regional growth, improving skills across the workforce, creating an industrial strategy, driving innovation and transitioning to Net Zero.

Ms Reeves then unveiled the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR’s) latest economic projections, which suggest the economy will expand slightly faster than previously expected both this year and next, before easing off from 2026 onwards. The new forecast predicts the economy will grow by 1.1% in 2024 and 2.0% next year, before falling back to 1.6% by the end of this Parliament. Overall, the OBR noted that, although the policies in the Budget will ‘temporarily boost’ the economy, the overall level of output will be ‘broadly unchanged’ over the five-year forecast period. Inflation is predicted to average 2.5% this year and 2.6% in 2025.

Cost-of-living measures

The Chancellor acknowledged the burden that the cost-of-living crisis has placed on working people, and committed to:

  • Increasing the National Living Wage (NLW) from £11.44 to £12.21 per hour from April 2025 – a 6.7% increase
  • Increasing the minimum for 18 to 20-year-olds from £8.60 to £10 per hour (over time, the intention is to create a single adult NLW rate)
  • Freezing fuel duty for one year and extending the temporary 5p cut to 22 March 2026
  • Increasing the weekly earnings limit for Carer’s Allowance to equate to 16 hours at the NLW rate
  • Providing £1bn for local authorities to support those in immediate hardship and crisis.

Personal taxation, savings and pensions

As pledged in the Labour manifesto, there are to be no changes to the basic, higher or additional rates of Income Tax, employee National Insurance contributions (NICs) or VAT.

As previously announced, the government has committed to maintain the State Pension Triple Lock for the duration of this Parliament, meaning that the basic and new State Pensions will increase by 4.1% in 2025-26, in line with earnings growth. This means £230.30 a week for the full, new flat-rate State Pension (for those who reached State Pension age after April 2016) and £176.45 a week for the full, old basic State Pension (for those who reached State Pension age before April 2016).

The lower and higher main rates of Capital Gains Tax (CGT) will increase to 18% and 24% respectively for disposals made on or after 30 October 2024. The rate for Business Asset Disposal Relief and Investors’ Relief will increase to 14% from 6 April 2025 and then to 18% from 6 April 2026. The lifetime limit for Investors’ Relief will be reduced to £1m for all qualifying disposals made on or after 30 October 2024, matching the lifetime limit for Business Asset Disposal Relief.

Inheritance Tax (IHT) nil-rate bands will stay at current levels until 5 April 2030 (previously 2028). The nil-rate band remains at £325,000, residence nil-rate band at £175,000, and the residence nil-rate band taper starts at £2m. Unused pension funds and death benefits payable from a pension will be subject to IHT from 6 April 2027.

The government intends to reform Agricultural Property Relief and Business Property Relief from 6 April 2026. In addition to existing nil-rate bands and exemptions, the current 100% rates of relief will continue for the first £1m of combined agricultural and business property. Thereafter, the rate of relief will be 50%, including for quoted shares which are ‘not listed’ on the markets of recognised stock exchanges, such as AIM. From 6 April 2025, Agricultural Property Relief will be extended to land managed under an environmental agreement with, or on behalf of, the UK government, devolved governments, public bodies, local authorities, or approved responsible bodies.

The concept of domicile status is to be removed from the tax system and replaced with a residence-based regime from 6 April 2025. This includes ending the use of offshore trusts to shelter assets from IHT and scrapping the planned 50% tax reduction for foreign income in the first year of the new regime. Individuals who opt in to the regime will not pay UK tax on foreign income and gains (FIG) for the first four years of tax residence.

In England, higher rates of Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) which apply to purchases of second homes, buy-to-let residential properties and companies purchasing residential property, increase from 3% to 5% above the standard residential rates, effective 31 October 2024. The single rate of SDLT that is charged on the purchase of dwellings costing more than £500,000 by corporate bodies will also be increased by two percentage points, from 15% to 17%.

In addition:

  • Annual subscription limits will remain at £20,000 for ISAs, £4,000 for Lifetime ISAs and £9,000 for Junior ISAs and Child Trust Funds until 5 April 2030. The government will not proceed with the British ISA due to mixed responses to the consultation launched in March 2024
  • The Enterprise Investment Scheme and Venture Capital Trust schemes are extended to 2035
  • The Income Tax Personal Allowance and higher rate threshold remain at £12,570 and £50,270 respectively until April 2028. From April 2028, these personal tax thresholds will be uprated in line with inflation (rates and thresholds may differ for taxpayers in parts of the UK where Income Tax is devolved)
  • Working age benefits will be uprated in full in 2025-26 by the September 2024 Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rate of 1.7%
  • The starting rate for savings will be retained at £5,000 for 2025-26.

Business measures

In her speech, Ms Reeves said, “we are asking businesses to contribute more” to raise revenues required to fund public services. She added, “I do not take this decision lightly,” before announcing:

  • An increase in employers’ National Insurance Contributions (NICs) by 1.2 percentage points to 15% from April 2025
  • A reduction of the secondary threshold from £9,100 per year to £5,000 per year
  • An increase to the Employment Allowance from £5,000 to £10,500
  • The introduction of two permanently lower business rates for retail, leisure and hospitality businesses from 2026-27, funded by a higher multiplier for the most valuable properties
  • £1.9bn of support to small business and the high street in the form of a freeze on the small business multiplier and 40% rates relief for retail, hospitality and leisure properties (capped at £110,000)
  • £250m in funding for the British Business Bank’s small business loans programmes
  • The headline rate of Corporation Tax will be capped at 25%.

Health and education

To round off her inaugural Budget, Ms Reeves turned her attention to “two final areas in which investment is so badly needed to repair the fabric of our nation.”

As indicated in the Party’s election manifesto, the Chancellor confirmed plans to introduce VAT on private school fees (except for children below compulsory school age) from January 2025, and to remove private schools’ business rates relief from April 2025.

Funding for the state school system is set to increase by £11.2bn from 2023-2024 levels – a 3.5% real terms increase. This includes:

  • Increasing funding for day-to-day school spending by £2.3bn, £1bn of which is earmarked for pupils with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND)
  • £1.8bn to continue the expansion of government-funded childcare
  • £30m to fund thousands more breakfast clubs in primary schools
  • Investing in new teachers for core subjects
  • £300m for further education.

Ms Reeves also announced a £6.7bn capital funding package for education in England in 2025-26, a real terms increase of 19% from 2024-25, including £1.4bn towards rebuilding over 500 schools in the greatest need.

Lastly, the Chancellor tackled her plans for the National Health Service, announcing:

  • A 10-year plan for the NHS, to be published in the spring
  • A £22.6bn increase in the day-to-day health budget to deliver on the government’s 18-week waiting time target
  • £3.1bn increase in the capital budget over this year and the next.

Other key points

  • Help to Save scheme – extended until April 2027
  • Alcohol duty – tax on non-draught alcoholic drinks to increase by the usually higher RPI measure of inflation, tax on draught drinks cut by 1.7%
  • Vaping products duty – new tax of £2.20 per 10ml of vaping liquid introduced from October 2026
  • Tobacco duty – to increase by 2% above RPI on all tobacco products and 10% above inflation for hand-rolling tobacco with immediate effect
  • Bus fares – £2 cap on single fares in England to rise to £3 from January 2025
  • Clean energy sector – £3.9bn of funding in 2025-26
  • Air Passenger Duty (APD) – increased for 2026-27, £1 more for domestic economy flights, £2 more for short-haul economy flights and £12 more for long-haul destinations. The higher rate applicable to private jets will rise by 50% in 2026-27
  • Devolved government funding – to receive an additional £6.6bn through the operation of the Barnett formula in 2025-26 (£3.4bn for the Scottish Government, £1.7bn for the Welsh Government and £1.5bn for the Northern Ireland Executive)
  • Expanding government-funded childcare support – an additional £1.8bn pledged for working parents in England, bringing total spending on childcare to over £8bn in 2025-26.

Closing comments

Rachel Reeves signed off her Budget saying, “I have made my choices, the responsible choices, to restore stability to our country, to protect working people… Fixing the foundations of our economy. Investing in our future. Delivering change. Rebuilding Britain.”

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding of the Budget, taxation and HMRC rules and can be subject to change in future. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK; please ask for details. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor.

All details are believed to be correct at the time of writing (30 October 2024)

This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Tees is a trading name of Tees Financial Limited which is regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered number 211314.

Tees Financial Limited is registered in England and Wales. Registered number 4342506.

UK economic growth forecast upgraded

Posted on by Sophie Soraf

Economic review September 2024

On markets at the end of September, with investors and traders closely monitoring regional developments. 

At month end, stocks retreated following implications from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that further interest rate cuts are likely to occur at a more measured pace.

Across the pond, the Dow Jones closed the month up 1.85% on 42,330.15. The tech-orientated NASDAQ closed the month up 2.68% on 18,189.17.

On home shores, the FTSE 100 index closed the month on 8,236.95, a loss of 1.67%, while the FTSE 250 closed the month 0.16% lower on 21,053.19. The FTSE AIM closed on 740.43, a loss of 4.15% in the month. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed the month on 5,000.45, up 0.86%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 closed September on 37,919.55, a monthly loss of 1.88%.

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.20 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.33 against sterling and at $1.11 against the euro.

Brent crude closed September trading at $71.65 a barrel, a loss over the month of 6.74%. The conflict in the Middle East is causing some price volatility. OPEC+ plans to begin increasing production in December is pressurising prices, while weak demand in China also weighs. Gold closed the month trading at $2,629.95 a troy ounce, a monthly gain of 4.64%. Prices retreated at month end, reversing recent strong gains as increased safe-haven demand prompted a rally in the precious metal.

Index

Value (30/09/24)

Movement since 30/08/24

FTSE 1008,236.95-1.67%
FTSE 25021,053.19-0.16%
FTSE AIM740.43-4.15%
Euro Stoxx 505,000.45+0.86%
NASDAQ Composite18,189.17+2.68%
Dow Jones42,330.15+1.85%
Nikkei 22537,919.55-1.88%

Retail sales stronger than expected

The latest official retail sales statistics revealed a healthy growth in sales volumes during August, while more recent survey data points to further modest improvement both last month and in October.

Figures released by ONS showed that total retail sales volumes rose by 1.0% in August, following upwardly revised monthly growth of 0.7% in July. ONS reported that August’s rise, which was higher than economists had predicted, was boosted by warmer weather and end-of-season sales.

Evidence from last month’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey also suggests retailers expect the summer sales improvement to have continued into the autumn period, with its annual retail sales gauge rising to +4 in September from -27 in August. In addition, retailers’ expectations for sales in the month ahead (October) rose to +5; this represents the strongest response to this question since April 2023.

CBI Principal Economist Martin Sartorius said retailers would “welcome” the modest sales growth reported in the latest survey. He also added a note of caution saying, “While some firms within the retail sector are beginning to see tailwinds from rising household incomes, others report that consumer spending habits are still being affected by the increase in prices over the last few years.”

National debt looks set to soar

Analysis published last month by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) suggests national debt could triple over the coming decades if future governments take no action.

In its latest Fiscal Risks and Sustainability Report, the OBR said debt is currently on course to rise from almost 100% of annual GDP to 274% of GDP over the next 50 years due to pressures including an ageing population, climate change and geopolitical risks. It also warned that, without any change in policy or a return to post-war productivity levels, the public finances were unsustainable over the long term, and that ‘something’s got to give.’

The OBR is also tasked with producing a more detailed five-year outlook for the country’s finances that will be published alongside Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ first Budget, due to be delivered on 30 October. The Chancellor has previously warned the Budget will involve “difficult decisions” on tax, spending and welfare.

Data released last month by ONS showed that government borrowing in August totalled £13.7bn, the highest figure for that month since 2021. This took borrowing in the first five months of the financial year to £64.1bn, £6bn higher than the OBR forecast at the last Budget.

All details are correct at the time of writing (1 October 2024)

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.

This material is intended for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Tees is a trading name of Tees Financial Limited, which is regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered number 211314.

Tees Financial Limited is registered in England and Wales. Registered number 4342506.

Energy price cap increase: A new challenge for UK households

Posted on by Sophie Soraf

As another autumn approaches, UK households are bracing for another blow to their finances. The energy price cap, which sets a maximum price that suppliers can charge for electricity and gas, is set to increase by 10% from October, meaning that millions of households will see their energy bills rise significantly. The combined impact of rising energy costs, food prices, and other essential goods and services is making it increasingly difficult for families to make ends meet. This latest development is adding to the growing pressure, already strained by the ongoing cost of living crisis.

Navigating the financial storm

In the face of these challenges, it’s important for households to take proactive steps to manage their finances. Here are some tips from Tees Law’s Wealth Team:

  • Review Your Budget: Take a close look at your monthly income and expenses to identify areas where you can cut back. Consider reducing non-essential spending and exploring opportunities to increase your income.
  • Energy Efficiency: Invest in energy-efficient appliances and make your home more energy-efficient. This can help to reduce your energy consumption and lower your bills in the long run.
  • Government Support: Be aware of the government support available to help you with the cost of living. This may include grants, loans, or other financial assistance.
  • Seek Professional Advice: If you’re struggling to manage your finances, consider seeking advice from a financial advisor. They can help you develop a personalized plan to address your specific needs.

How can we help?

At Tees, our Wealth Team is dedicated to offering expert financial advice and support to individuals and families. We assess your financial situation, identify areas for improvement, and create personalised plans to help you reach your goals—whether it’s saving for a home, planning for retirement, or managing debt. We also identify investment opportunities and provide ongoing support to help you manage and protect your wealth.

If you’re facing financial challenges due to the rising energy price cap or other factors, Tees Financial Ltd can provide the guidance and support you need. Contact us today to schedule a consultation.

This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. It is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns and all investments involve risks. Some information quoted was obtained from external sources we consider to be reliable.

Tees is a trading name of Tees Financial Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered number 211314. Tees Financial Limited is registered in England and Wales. Registered number 4342506.

Planning ahead: learn about types of pensions

Posted on by Sophie Soraf

Your guide to retirement planning

Pensions can be complicated because there are different types of pensions, and different rules that govern them, plus also lots of options for what you can do with a pension when you want to use the money. It’s worth understanding the main concepts so that you can make choices that could have a significant impact on the quality of your retirement. Before making any decisions about pensions, you should always consult an independent financial adviser.

What are the different types of pensions?

There are three major pension options and most people fund their retirement through a combination of one, two or all three of these types.

Private pensions

Also known as ‘defined contribution’ or ‘money purchase’ pensions, you pay part of your earnings into a pension fund, which your provider invests. The final amount depends on your contributions, fund performance, fees, and how you withdraw the money.

State pension

A weekly payment (£203.85) paid from age 66, gradually increasing to 67 and 68 depending on your birth date. To qualify, you need at least 10 years of National Insurance contributions (NICs), with 35 years required for the full amount.

Workplace pensions

Provided by your employer, a portion of your salary is automatically deducted and topped up by employer contributions and government tax relief, unless you opt out.

How to make your workplace pension better for the future?

You could do the following:

  • Review your fund choices: Adjust your investments based on your risk tolerance. Many providers offer tools to help assess your risk profile.
  • Consolidate pensions: Transfer existing pensions into your workplace pension to simplify management and boost its value. You can often do this directly or with financial advice.
  • Increase contributions: Consider raising your contribution percentage with your employer or HR. Basic rate taxpayers get 20% tax relief, while higher-rate taxpayers get 40%. Salary sacrifice is also an option.

For help, contact your pension provider or a financial adviser. You typically receive tax relief on all contributions up to annual and lifetime limits.

Is there a limit on how much I can pay into a pension?

You can contribute as much as you like to your pension, but the amount of tax relief you can claim is limited. For the 2023-24 tax year, the Annual Allowance is £60,000 or 100% of your earnings, whichever is lower. If you’ve used up your current Annual Allowance, you may be able to carry forward unused allowances from the previous three years, provided you were a member of a pension scheme during that time.

For higher earners with a taxable income over £200,000, the Tapered Annual Allowance reduces the amount of tax-relievable contributions. If you’ve flexibly accessed your pension, the Money Purchase Annual Allowance (MPAA) applies, limiting contributions to £10,000 per year from April 2023.

When can I access my pension?

Pension freedoms introduced in 2015 allow you greater flexibility in how you can access certain pension pots from age 55; this will increase to 57 from 6th April 2028.  This greater flexibility gives more options but is only available on certain types of pensions and you should seek advice to assess what your specific options are.

How we can help 

Our advisers simplify your options and tailor a plan based on your financial goals, risk tolerance, and tax position.

So, if you would like to discuss your pension options and retirement planning, do get in touch. We are only a phone call away. You can be sure that all our advice and recommendations will be focused on getting you the best possible result.

This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. It is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns and all investments involve risks. Some information quoted was obtained from external sources we consider to be reliable.

Tees is a trading name of Tees Financial Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered number 211314. Tees Financial Limited is registered in England and Wales. Registered number 4342506.

 

Interest rate adjustments and mortgage market shifts

Posted on by Sophie Soraf

The Bank of England’s recent suggestion of a potential “soft landing” for the UK economy has provided a bit of hope amongst the ongoing economic challenges. While this news has been welcomed by many, the lingering effects of high-interest rates continue to impact various sectors, particularly the housing market.

In response to the changing economic landscape, mortgage lenders have begun to adjust their rates. Several lenders have recently announced reductions in their mortgage rates, sparking renewed interest among prospective homebuyers. This downward trend in rates has led to increased affordability for some, making it more accessible for individuals and families to enter the property market.

Navigating uncertainty

Despite the recent positive developments, there remains a degree of uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of this. Several factors continue to show challenges to the broader economy, including:

  • Inflationary pressures: While inflation rates have shown signs of easing, they remain elevated, impacting consumer spending and business confidence.
  • Geopolitical tensions: Global conflicts and economic uncertainties can influence investor attitudes and market stability.
  • Interest rates: The Bank of England’s monetary policy decisions will continue to shape the interest rate environment, affecting borrowing costs for both consumers and businesses.

Your trusted financial partner

Given the dynamic nature of the current economic climate, it’s key for individuals and families to seek expert financial advice. Our Wealth Team can provide valuable guidance and support in navigating these uncertain times.

We can assess how changes in interest rates may affect your financial situation, particularly if you have existing loans or mortgages. If needed, we can help you explore mortgage options while developing a personalised long-term financial plan, ensuring your wealth is protected through effective financial planning and risk management strategies.

Introducing Toni

With over 30 years of experience in the financial services industry, Toni specialises in providing expert advice to clients seeking guidance on later life financial matters. Her expertise extends to life, health, mortgage, and pension planning, with a particular focus on later life lending, equity release, and care fees planning.

Toni works closely with her colleagues at Tees Wealth and our legal teams to deliver comprehensive care fees planning and equity release advice. This involves liaising with local authorities and government departments on behalf of our clients to ensure they receive the best possible support.

Delivering what you really need

At Tees, we believe that financial and legal advice should empower you to make informed decisions. Our goal is to provide you with the information and options you need to confidently navigate your retirement years. Toni’s expertise and personalised approach will help you understand the complexities of later life planning and make informed choices.

Care funding: A personalised approach

We understand that planning for care funding can be a complex and emotional process. Our team is committed to making this process as straightforward as possible. We work closely with our clients to understand their specific needs and tailor our advice accordingly. Through careful planning, it may be possible to structure your finances in a way that allows you to pay for care fees without depleting all of your assets.

Equity release: Achieving your financial goals

Whether you’re looking to downsize, gift your property, or simply enhance your retirement lifestyle, equity release may be a suitable option. Toni can provide expert advice on the costs, risks, and potential implications of equity release on inheritance tax, care entitlements, and means-tested benefits.

Why choose equity release?

  • access tax-free cash from your home
  • maintain ownership and stay in your property
  • enhance your retirement lifestyle
  • repay outstanding mortgage or debt
  • provide financial support or care for loved ones
  • purchase a new home
  • gift to children or grandchildren
  • home and Garden improvements

This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. It is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns and all investments involve risks. Some information quoted was obtained from external sources we consider to be reliable.

Tees is a trading name of Tees Financial Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered number 211314. Tees Financial Limited is registered in England and Wales. Registered number 4342506.

Unexpected economic boost: UK growth outpaces forecasts

Posted on by Sophie Soraf

Economic Review July 2024

Figures released last month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the UK economy grew faster in May than had been predicted, while survey evidence points to a more recent post-election pick-up in business activity.

The latest gross domestic product (GDP) statistics revealed that economic output rose by 0.4% in May, twice the level forecast in a Reuters poll of economists. May’s figure also represented a strong rebound from the zero-growth rate recorded in April, with a broad-based increase in output as the services, manufacturing, and construction sectors all posted positive rates of growth.

ONS also noted that growth was relatively strong in the three months to May, with GDP rising by 0.9% in comparison to the previous three-month period. This represents the UK economy’s fastest growth rate for more than two years.

Evidence from a closely watched economic survey also suggests private sector output picked up last month following a lull in the run-up to July’s General Election. The preliminary headline growth indicator from the latest S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 52.7 in July, slightly ahead of analysts’ expectations and up from a six-month low of 52.3 in June. Manufacturing output was particularly strong, with this sector expanding at its fastest rate in almost two and a half years.

Commenting on the findings, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “The flash PMI survey data for July signal an encouraging start to the second half of the year, with output, order books and employment all growing at faster rates amid rebounding business confidence. The first post-election business survey paints a welcoming picture for the new government, with companies operating across manufacturing and services having gained optimism about the future and reporting a renewed surge in demand.”

Fresh signs of cooling jobs market

Last month’s release of labour market statistics revealed further signs of a softening in the UK jobs market with pay growth easing and another drop in the overall number of vacancies.

Recently released ONS figures showed that average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, rose at an annual rate of 5.7% in the three months to May. Although this was in line with analysts’ expectations, it did represent a modest decline from the 6.0% recorded during the previous three-month period and was the slowest reported rate of pay growth since the summer of 2022.

ONS said the latest release suggested pay growth is now showing ‘signs of slowing again’ although it also pointed out that, in real terms, wage growth still stands at a two-and-a-half-year high. Indeed, after adjusting for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs, regular pay rose by 2.5% in the three months to May.

The data also revealed a further fall in the number of job vacancies, with 30,000 fewer reported in the April–June period compared to the previous three months. While at 889,000, the total is still significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, this latest fall was the 24th successive monthly decline in the overall level of vacancies.

ONS highlighted other signs of ‘cooling’ in the labour market as well, with growth in the number of employees on the payroll said to be ‘weakening over the medium term.’ Additionally, while the latest release did show the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.4%, ONS noted that the rate has been ‘gradually increasing.’

The statistics agency also provided an update on its plans to improve reliability of the labour market data. A switch to a new version of its Labour Force Survey, which had been due to take place in September, has now been delayed until next year.

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

On the last day of July, US equities were supported as investors contemplated the latest move from the Federal Reserve to retain rates, with indicators from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that a September cut “could be on the table.”

The tech-oriented NASDAQ responded positively after a challenging few days as initial earnings from some tech mega caps disappointed. The NASDAQ closed July down 0.75% on 17,599.40, while the Dow Jones closed the month up 4.41% on 40,842.79.

The UK’s blue-chip FTSE 100 had a boost on 31 July, with a series of strong headline earnings supporting, while traders await the Bank of England’s next interest rate decision. The index closed the month on 8,367.98, a gain of 2.50% during July, while the FTSE 250 closed the month 6.48% higher on 21,600.71. The FTSE AIM closed on 787.02, a gain of 2.96% in the month. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed July on 4,872.94, down 0.43%. The Japanese Nikkei 225 closed the month on 39,101.82, a monthly loss of 1.22%.

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.18 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.28 against sterling and at $1.08 against the euro.

Brent crude closed July trading at $80.91 a barrel, a loss over the month of 4.56%. With Middle East conflicts escalating, crude prices were impacted as markets closely watch geopolitical developments. Gold closed the month trading at $2,426.30 a troy ounce, a monthly gain of 4.09%.

Index

Value (31/07/24)

Movement since 28/06/24

FTSE 1008,367.98+2.50%
FTSE 25021,600.71+6.48%
FTSE AIM787.02+2.96%
Euro Stoxx 504,872.94-0.43%
NASDAQ Composite17,599.40-0.75%
Dow Jones40,842.79+4.41%
Nikkei 22539,101.82-1.22%

Headline inflation rate holds steady

Consumer price statistics published last month by ONS showed that the UK headline rate of inflation was unchanged in June defying analysts’ expectations of a slight fall.

According to the latest inflation figures, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate – which compares prices in the current month with the same period a year earlier – remained at 2.0% in June. This was marginally above the 1.9% consensus forecast taken from a Reuters poll of economists.

The largest downward pressure on June’s CPI rate came from the clothing and footwear sector, which ONS said was due to a higher level of discounting in this year’s summer sales compared to 2023. Hotel prices, however, rose by a significantly greater extent this June than last year, while a comparatively smaller fall in the costs of second-hand cars also put upward pressure on the headline rate.

Just prior to release of June’s data, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the UK was among a number of countries witnessing some ‘persistence’ in inflation, particularly in relation to services inflation. The IMF added that this was ‘complicating monetary policy normalisation’ with the ‘upside risks to inflation’ raising the prospects of interest rates staying ‘higher for even longer.’

Cooler weather hits retail sector

The latest official retail sales statistics revealed declining sales volumes after unseasonably cool weather deterred shoppers. At the same time, more recent survey data suggests the retail environment remains challenging.

ONS figures released last month showed that total retail sales volumes fell by 1.2% in June, following strong growth during May. ONS said June saw a decline across most sectors, particularly those sensitive to weather changes such as department stores and clothes shops. Retailers blamed poor weather and low footfall, as well as election uncertainty, for dampening sales.

Evidence from the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey shows trading conditions have remained difficult, with its headline measure of sales volumes in the year to July dropping to -43% from -24% the previous month. The CBI described July as a ‘disappointing’ month for retailers, blaming a combination of ‘unfavourable weather conditions’ and ‘ongoing market uncertainty.’

The survey also found that the retail sector expects the weak outlook to continue this month, although August’s fall in sales volumes is forecast to be slower (-32%). The CBI also noted some glimmers of optimism, with several retailers expressing hopes for ‘an improvement in market conditions post-general election.’

All details are correct at the time of writing (1 August 2024)

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice, and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individually tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of relief from taxation are currently applied or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the investor’s individual circumstances. No part of this document may be reproduced without prior permission.

This material is intended for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Tees is a trading name of Tees Financial Limited, which is regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered number 211314.

Tees Financial Limited is registered in England and Wales. Registered number 4342506.

Bank of England hints at imminent rate cuts amid economic shifts

Posted on by Sophie Soraf

Economic Review June 2024 – the prospect of a rate cut moves closer

While last month once again saw the Bank of England (BoE) leave interest rates unchanged at a 16-year high, the minutes of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting signalled a notable change in tone. Economists now view a rate cut as the most likely outcome when the MPC next convenes.

At its latest meeting, which concluded on 19 June, the MPC voted by a 7–2 majority to maintain the Bank Rate at 5.25%. For the second month running, the two dissenting voices called for an immediate quarter-point reduction, while, for the first time, some other members described their thinking as being “finely balanced.”

The meeting minutes also highlighted this potentially significant shift in stance, noting that the MPC will now examine whether ‘the risks from inflation persistence are receding.’ The minutes concluded, ‘On that basis, the Committee will keep under review for how long Bank Rate should be maintained at its current level.’

Last month’s inflation statistics published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) before the MPC announcement revealed that the headline rate has returned to its 2% target level for the first time in almost three years. In a statement released alongside the MPC decision, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey described that as “good news.” He also said that policymakers need to be sure inflation will remain low and added, “that’s why we’ve decided to hold rates for now.”

July’s release of economic data, particularly in relation to wage growth and services inflation, is likely to prove pivotal to the next MPC decision, which is due to be announced on 1 August. A recent Reuters survey, however, found that most economists now expect an imminent cut, with all but two of the 65 polled predicting an August rate reduction.

Survey data signals a slowing pace of growth

Official data published last month revealed that the UK economy failed to grow in April, while survey evidence points to a more recent slowdown in private sector output due to rising uncertainty in the run-up to the General Election.

The latest monthly economic growth statistics released by ONS showed the UK economy flatlined in April, as most economists had predicted. Some sectors did report growth; services output, for instance, was up by 0.2%, a fourth consecutive monthly rise, with both the information and technology and the professional and scientific industries reporting rapid expansion across the month.

Other sectors, however, contracted, with ONS saying some were hit by April’s particularly wet weather. A number of retail businesses, for example, told the statistics agency that above-average rainfall had dented their trade during the month. Activity across the construction industries was also believed to have been impacted by the wetter weather.

More recent survey data also suggests private sector output is now growing at its slowest rate since the economy was in recession last year. Preliminary data from the S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) revealed that its headline economic growth indicator fell to 51.7 in June from 53.0 in May, a larger decline than analysts had been expecting. While the latest figure does remain above the 50 threshold, denoting growth in private sector output, it was the indicator’s lowest reading since November 2023.

Regarding the data, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “Flash PMI survey data for June signalled a slowing in the pace of economic growth. The slowdown, in part, reflects uncertainty around the business environment in the lead-up to the General Election, with many firms seeing a hiatus in decision-making pending clarity on various policies.”

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

As June drew close, global indices were mixed as a raft of economic data was released. Stronger-than-expected GDP data in the UK at month end fuelled speculation over the timing of interest rate cuts, while in the US, the latest inflation reading boosted market sentiment, and unemployment data came in below estimates.

Although the FTSE 100 registered its first monthly decline in four months, the upward revision to Q1 GDP on 28 June supported sentiment around UK-focused equities at month’s end. The main UK index closed June at 8,164.12, a loss of 1.34% during the month, while the FTSE 250 closed the month 2.14% lower at 20,286.03. The FTSE AIM closed at 764.38, a loss of 5.14% in the month. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed June on 4,894.02, down 1.80%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 closed the month at 39,583.08, a monthly gain of 2.85%. Meanwhile, in the US, the Dow closed the month up 1.12% at 39,118.86, and the NASDAQ closed June up 5.96% at 17,732.60.

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.17 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.26 against sterling and at $1.07 against the euro.

Gold closed June trading at around $2,330.90 a troy ounce, a monthly loss of 0.74%. Brent crude closed the month trading at $84.78 a barrel, a gain of 4.18%. The price rose during the month as indicators suggested an expanded military conflict in the Middle East, which could further disrupt the production of OPEC+ member Iran.

Index

Value (28/06/2024)

Movement since 31/05/024

FTSE 1008,164.12-1.34%
FTSE 25020,286.03-2.14%
FTSE AIM764.38-5.14%
Euro Stoxx 504,894.02-1.80%
NASDAQ Composite17,732.60+5.96%
Dow Jones39,118.86+1.12%
Nikkei39,583.08+2.85%

Retail sales rebound strongly in May

The latest official retail sales statistics revealed strong growth in sales volumes during May after heavy rain dampened activity in the previous month, although more recent survey data does suggest the retail environment remains challenging.

ONS data published last month showed that total retail sales volumes rose by 2.9% in May, a strong bounce back from April’s 1.8% decline. ONS said sales volumes increased across most sectors, with clothing retailers and furniture stores enjoying a particularly strong rebound from the previous month’s weather-impacted figures.

Evidence from the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey, however, suggests May’s recovery has proved to be short-lived. Its headline measure of sales volumes in the year to June fell to -24% from +8% the previous month. While the CBI did note that unseasonably cold weather may have impacted June’s figures, the data certainly suggests that retailers still face a tough trading environment.

CBI Interim Deputy Chief Economist Alpesh Paleja said, “Consumer fundamentals are improving, with inflation now at the Bank of England’s 2% target and real incomes rising. But it’s clear that households are still struggling with the legacies of the cost-of-living crisis, with the level of prices still historically high in some areas.”

Financial challenges await the new government

Data released by ONS last month showed that UK public sector debt is now at its highest level for over 60 years, while the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has warned that the next government will face a fiscal ‘trilemma.’

The latest public sector finance statistics revealed that government borrowing totalled £15bn in May, the third highest amount ever recorded for that month. Although the figure was £800m higher than May last year, it did come in below analysts’ expectations and was £600m less than the Office for Budget Responsibility had predicted in its latest forecast.

Despite this, the data also showed that public sector net debt as a percentage of economic output has now risen to 99.8%. This was up 3.7 percentage points from last May’s figure, leaving this measure of debt at its highest level since 1961.

Analysis by the IFS has also highlighted the scale of the financial challenge awaiting whichever party wins the forthcoming General Election. The IFS said that, unless economic growth is stronger than expected, the incoming government will face a ‘trilemma,’ either having to raise taxes more than their manifestos imply, implement cuts to some areas of public spending or allow the national debt to continue rising.

All details are correct at the time of writing (1 July 2024)

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice, and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individually tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of and reliefs from taxation are currently applied or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the investor’s individual circumstances. No part of this document may be reproduced without prior permission.

This material is intended for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Tees is a trading name of Tees Financial Limited, regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority and registered number 211314.

Tees Financial Limited is registered in England and Wales and registered number 4342506.

Election Debrief: 5 July 2024

Posted on by Sophie Soraf

Following weeks of intense campaigning, the electorate has delivered its verdict. As widely expected, the Labour Party has secured a historic landslide victory, soaring past the magic 326 seat mark in the early hours of Friday morning.

With the party now occupying over 400 seats, Sir Keir Starmer’s promise of “change” has certainly struck a chord with the electorate. In his victory speech, the incoming Prime Minister said, “We did it! You campaigned for it. You fought for it. You voted for it, and now it has arrived. Change begins now.”

The Conservatives sustained huge losses in the party’s worst-ever election performance. Outgoing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said, “The British people have delivered a sobering verdict tonight, there is much to learn… and I take responsibility for the loss.” He continued, “Today, power will change hands peacefully and orderly, with goodwill on all sides. That is something that should give us all confidence in our country’s stability and future.”

Mr Sunak, who has been in office since October 2022, managed to hold on to his seat in Richmond and Northallerton in Yorkshire; meanwhile, a raft of senior Conservative MPs, including former Prime Minister Liz Truss, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, and Jacob Rees-Mogg, lost their seats. In Wales, the Conservative Party lost all of its seats.

It was a record-breaking night for the Liberal Democrats, who secured over 70 seats. In early Friday morning, Sir Ed Davey said his party was set to achieve its “best result for a century.” Meanwhile, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage was voted an MP for the first time, and the Green Party broke records.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) suffered a dismal night, with SNP leader John Swinney describing the General Election result as “very, very difficult and damaging” for the party. The result greatly diminishes the chances of an independence referendum.

In the first July General Election since 1945, millions of voters went to polling stations on Thursday to have their say. However, early indications suggest an estimated voter turnout below 60% – the lowest in over 20 years.

Market reaction

In the run-up to the election, the markets were reasonably stable, with a strong Labour victory already priced in and investors hopeful of a pro-growth productivity-led agenda. As the markets opened following the results on 5 July, the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 both opened up, and sterling held steady after the exit polls came in on Thursday evening.

What now?

A new parliament will be summoned to meet on 9 July. The King’s Speech is scheduled for 17 July and is part of the State Opening of Parliament, before which no substantive parliamentary business can usually occur. The new government will then decide a date on which the summer recess will commence.

And a Budget?

We await the date of incoming Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ first Budget, where we will gain clarity on the new government’s fiscal priorities, where any changes to tax and spending will be announced. Ms Reeves said Labour would not hold a Budget without an independent forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), and this requires ten weeks’ notice to prepare.

Labour manifesto key pledges

Some of the new government’s key manifesto pledges include reforming planning rules, recruiting 6,500 new teachers and tackling immigration. Plans are expected to be funded by raising £8bn through abolishing the non-dom tax status, increasing Stamp Duty for foreign buyers, clamping down on those underpaying tax by closing ‘loopholes’ in the windfall tax on oil and gas firms, and introducing VAT on private school fees (Rachel Reeves has suggested this won’t be imposed until at least 2025). No changes were promised to personal tax rates and pensions. The Triple Lock is expected to be upheld, and the pensions landscape will be reviewed.

The bottom line

Whichever way you voted on 4 July, the country has acted decisively to provide a massive majority, and under Keir Starmer’s leadership, the hard work begins. As usual, we will closely monitor developments likely to impact your finances over the coming months. Looking after your financial future remains a priority. Please get in touch if you have any questions.

The value of investments can go down and up, and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

All details are correct at the time of writing (5 July 2024)

This material is intended for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Tees is a trading name of Tees Financial Limited, regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority and registered number 211314.

Tees Financial Limited is registered in England and Wales and registered number 4342506.

Economic Review May 2024

Posted on by Sophie Soraf

UK growth rate at a two-year high

Last month’s release of first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) statistics confirmed that the UK economy has exited the shallow recession it entered during the latter half of last year. Survey evidence suggests private sector output has expanded over the past two months.

The latest GDP data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the UK economy grew by 0.6% from January to March. This figure was above all forecasts submitted to a Reuters poll of economists, with the consensus prediction pointing to a 0.4% first-quarter expansion. It represents the fastest quarterly growth rate since the final three months of 2021.

ONS said that growth was driven by broad-based strength across the services sector, with retail, public transport and haulage, and health all performing well; car manufacturers also enjoyed a particularly good quarter, although construction activity remained weak. In addition, the statistics agency noted that the first-quarter data was likely to have been boosted by Easter falling in March this year compared to April last year.

Data from the closely-watched S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) suggests the recovery continued in the second quarter. While May’s monthly release did reveal that the preliminary composite headline Index fell to 52.8 from 54.1 in April, this latest reading was still above the 50 threshold that denotes growth in private sector activity.

Commenting on the findings, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “The flash PMI survey data for May signalled a further expansion of UK business activity, suggesting the economy continues to recover from the mild recession seen late last year. The survey data are consistent with GDP rising by around 0.3% in the second quarter, with an encouraging revival of manufacturing accompanied by sustained, but slower, service sector growth.” 

Inflation data dampens early rate cut hopes

Chances of the Bank of England (BoE) sanctioning a June interest rate cut have declined significantly following last month’s smaller-than-expected drop in the rate of inflation.

Following its latest meeting, which concluded on 8 May, the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a seven-to-two majority to leave the Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25%. The two dissenting voices, however, both preferred a quarter-point reduction, and comments made by policymakers after the meeting did appear to suggest a first rate cut since 2020 was edging ever closer.

Speaking just after announcing the MPC’s decision, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey made it clear that the Bank needs to see “more evidence” of slowing price rises before cutting rates. But he once again struck a relatively upbeat note on future reductions, adding he was “optimistic” things were moving in the right direction.

Comments subsequently made by BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent also seemed to be potentially paving the way for rates to be cut soon. Speaking at a central banking conference, Mr Broadbent suggested that if things continued to evolve in line with the Bank’s forecasts, it was “possible” rates could be cut “sometime over the summer.”

Last month’s release of inflation data though appears to have dashed hopes of an imminent cut. Although the headline annual CPI rate did fall sharply – down from 3.2% in March to 2.3% in April, primarily due to a large drop in household energy tariffs – the decline was less than had been expected, with both the BoE and economists polled by Reuters predicting a drop to 2.1%.

The next two MPC announcements are scheduled for 20 June and 1 August. While an August rate cut still appears to be a distinct possibility, most analysts now agree that a June reduction looks increasingly unlikely.

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

At the end of May, equities were in mixed territory as new inflation data from the eurozone and the US was digested by investors. Inflation stateside came in as expected, while eurozone data was higher than anticipated, fuelling speculation over the pace of rate cuts in both regions.

In the UK, the FTSE 100 index closed May on 8,275.38, a gain of 1.61% during the month, while the FTSE 250 closed the month 3.83% higher on 20,730.12. The FTSE AIM closed on 805.79, a gain of 5.92% in the month. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed the month on 4,983.67, up 1.27%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 closed May on 38,487.90, a small monthly gain of 0.21%. At the end of the month, the index traded higher as reports circulated about plans for major investments by government-backed pension funds and other large institutional investors.

Across the pond, at the end of May, newly released government data showed that during Q1, the US economy grew slower than initially estimated, and higher-than-expected jobless claims also weighed on sentiment. The Dow closed May up 2.30% on 38,686.32, meanwhile the NASDAQ closed the month up 6.88% on 16,735.02.

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.17 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.27 against sterling and at $1.08 against the euro.

Brent crude closed May trading at $81.38 a barrel, a loss during the month of 5.69%. The price dipped in May primarily due to concerns over future demand. Gold closed the month trading around $2,348 a troy ounce, a monthly gain of 1.79%.

Index

Value (31/05/2024)

Movement Since 30/04/2024

FTSE 1008,275.38+1.61%
FTSE 25020,730.12+3.83%
FTSE AIM805.79+5.92%
Euro Stoxx 504,983.67+1.27%
NASDAQ Composite16,735.02+6.68%
Dow Jones38,686.32+2.30%
Nikkei 22538,487.90+0.21%

Consumer sentiment continues to rise

Although official retail sales statistics for April did reveal a larger-than-expected decline in sales volumes, more recent survey data does point to an improving consumer outlook as households become more optimistic about their finances.

According to ONS data published last month, total retail sales volumes fell by 2.3% in April, following a 0.2% decline in March. ONS said sales fell across most sectors as poor weather reduced footfall but added that it was confident its seasonally adjusted figures had accounted for the timing of the Easter holidays.

Recently released survey data, though, does point to growing optimism for future retail prospects. For instance, May’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey reported a balance of +8 in its year-on-year sales volumes, measuring after April’s slump to -44. The CBI said May’s rise added to “the swathe of data pointing to an improvement in activity over the near-term” and suggested that falling inflation and continuing real wage growth will contribute to a “healthier consumer outlook.”

Data from the latest GfK consumer confidence index also revealed another rise in consumer sentiment. Indeed, May’s headline figure reached its highest level for nearly two-and-a-half years, as households took an increasingly positive view of their personal finances.

Wage growth remains resilient

Earnings statistics published last month showed that wage growth remains strong despite the recent slowing jobs market, although analysts expect pay growth to moderate over the coming months.

The latest ONS figures show that average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, rose at an annual rate of 6.0% in the first three months of 2024. This figure was the same as recorded in the previous three-month period, defying analysts’ expectations of a slight dip to 5.9%. After adjusting for CPI inflation, regular pay increased by 2.4% on the year, the largest rise in real earnings for over two years.

A survey released last month by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation suggests earnings growth remained high in April, with pay rates for temporary staff rising at their fastest rate in nearly a year. One factor driving this increase was April’s 9.8% minimum wage rise.

Research recently published by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) also found that employer expectations for private sector wage rises remain at the same level as reported three months ago. The CIPD did, though, say they expect employers to adjust their pay plans in the coming months as inflation falls and the labour market continues to slow.

All details are correct at the time of writing (3 June 2024)

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice, and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individually tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of relief from taxation are currently applied or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the investor’s individual circumstances. No part of this document may be reproduced without prior permission.

This material is intended for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Tees is a trading name of Tees Financial Limited, regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority and registered number 211314.

Tees Financial Limited is registered in England and Wales and registered number 4342506.

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All legal services provided by Tees are regulated by the Solicitors Regulation Authority. Tees is a trading name of Stanley Tee LLP is authorised and regulated by the Solicitors Regulation Authority (SRA Number 464615) and is registered in England and Wales number OC327874.

All financial services provided by Tees are regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Tees and Tees Wealth are trading names of Tees Financial Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales number 4342506. Registered office address Tees House, 95 London Road, Bishop’s Stortford CM23 3GW.

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All legal services provided by Tees are regulated by the Solicitors Regulation Authority. Tees is a trading name of Stanley Tee LLP is authorised and regulated by the Solicitors Regulation Authority (SRA Number 464615) and is registered in England and Wales number OC327874.

All financial services provided by Tees are regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Tees and Tees Wealth are trading names of Tees Financial Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales number 4342506. Registered office address Tees House, 95 London Road, Bishop’s Stortford CM23 3GW.

Copyright © 2025 Tees Law. All rights reserved.

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