July 2024

Bank of England hints at imminent rate cuts amid economic shifts

Posted on 9 July 202428 March 2025 by Sophie Soraf

Economic Review June 2024 – the prospect of a rate cut moves closer

While last month once again saw the Bank of England (BoE) leave interest rates unchanged at a 16-year high, the minutes of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting signalled a notable change in tone. Economists now view a rate cut as the most likely outcome when the MPC next convenes.

At its latest meeting, which concluded on 19 June, the MPC voted by a 7–2 majority to maintain the Bank Rate at 5.25%. For the second month running, the two dissenting voices called for an immediate quarter-point reduction, while, for the first time, some other members described their thinking as being “finely balanced.”

The meeting minutes also highlighted this potentially significant shift in stance, noting that the MPC will now examine whether ‘the risks from inflation persistence are receding.’ The minutes concluded, ‘On that basis, the Committee will keep under review for how long Bank Rate should be maintained at its current level.’

Last month’s inflation statistics published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) before the MPC announcement revealed that the headline rate has returned to its 2% target level for the first time in almost three years. In a statement released alongside the MPC decision, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey described that as “good news.” He also said that policymakers need to be sure inflation will remain low and added, “that’s why we’ve decided to hold rates for now.”

July’s release of economic data, particularly in relation to wage growth and services inflation, is likely to prove pivotal to the next MPC decision, which is due to be announced on 1 August. A recent Reuters survey, however, found that most economists now expect an imminent cut, with all but two of the 65 polled predicting an August rate reduction.

Survey data signals a slowing pace of growth

Official data published last month revealed that the UK economy failed to grow in April, while survey evidence points to a more recent slowdown in private sector output due to rising uncertainty in the run-up to the General Election.

The latest monthly economic growth statistics released by ONS showed the UK economy flatlined in April, as most economists had predicted. Some sectors did report growth; services output, for instance, was up by 0.2%, a fourth consecutive monthly rise, with both the information and technology and the professional and scientific industries reporting rapid expansion across the month.

Other sectors, however, contracted, with ONS saying some were hit by April’s particularly wet weather. A number of retail businesses, for example, told the statistics agency that above-average rainfall had dented their trade during the month. Activity across the construction industries was also believed to have been impacted by the wetter weather.

More recent survey data also suggests private sector output is now growing at its slowest rate since the economy was in recession last year. Preliminary data from the S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) revealed that its headline economic growth indicator fell to 51.7 in June from 53.0 in May, a larger decline than analysts had been expecting. While the latest figure does remain above the 50 threshold, denoting growth in private sector output, it was the indicator’s lowest reading since November 2023.

Regarding the data, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “Flash PMI survey data for June signalled a slowing in the pace of economic growth. The slowdown, in part, reflects uncertainty around the business environment in the lead-up to the General Election, with many firms seeing a hiatus in decision-making pending clarity on various policies.”

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

As June drew close, global indices were mixed as a raft of economic data was released. Stronger-than-expected GDP data in the UK at month end fuelled speculation over the timing of interest rate cuts, while in the US, the latest inflation reading boosted market sentiment, and unemployment data came in below estimates.

Although the FTSE 100 registered its first monthly decline in four months, the upward revision to Q1 GDP on 28 June supported sentiment around UK-focused equities at month’s end. The main UK index closed June at 8,164.12, a loss of 1.34% during the month, while the FTSE 250 closed the month 2.14% lower at 20,286.03. The FTSE AIM closed at 764.38, a loss of 5.14% in the month. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed June on 4,894.02, down 1.80%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 closed the month at 39,583.08, a monthly gain of 2.85%. Meanwhile, in the US, the Dow closed the month up 1.12% at 39,118.86, and the NASDAQ closed June up 5.96% at 17,732.60.

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.17 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.26 against sterling and at $1.07 against the euro.

Gold closed June trading at around $2,330.90 a troy ounce, a monthly loss of 0.74%. Brent crude closed the month trading at $84.78 a barrel, a gain of 4.18%. The price rose during the month as indicators suggested an expanded military conflict in the Middle East, which could further disrupt the production of OPEC+ member Iran.

Index	Value (28/06/2024)	Movement since 31/05/024
FTSE 100	8,164.12	-1.34%
FTSE 250	20,286.03	-2.14%
FTSE AIM	764.38	-5.14%
Euro Stoxx 50	4,894.02	-1.80%
NASDAQ Composite	17,732.60	+5.96%
Dow Jones	39,118.86	+1.12%
Nikkei	39,583.08	+2.85%

Retail sales rebound strongly in May

The latest official retail sales statistics revealed strong growth in sales volumes during May after heavy rain dampened activity in the previous month, although more recent survey data does suggest the retail environment remains challenging.

ONS data published last month showed that total retail sales volumes rose by 2.9% in May, a strong bounce back from April’s 1.8% decline. ONS said sales volumes increased across most sectors, with clothing retailers and furniture stores enjoying a particularly strong rebound from the previous month’s weather-impacted figures.

Evidence from the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey, however, suggests May’s recovery has proved to be short-lived. Its headline measure of sales volumes in the year to June fell to -24% from +8% the previous month. While the CBI did note that unseasonably cold weather may have impacted June’s figures, the data certainly suggests that retailers still face a tough trading environment.

CBI Interim Deputy Chief Economist Alpesh Paleja said, “Consumer fundamentals are improving, with inflation now at the Bank of England’s 2% target and real incomes rising. But it’s clear that households are still struggling with the legacies of the cost-of-living crisis, with the level of prices still historically high in some areas.”

Financial challenges await the new government

Data released by ONS last month showed that UK public sector debt is now at its highest level for over 60 years, while the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has warned that the next government will face a fiscal ‘trilemma.’

The latest public sector finance statistics revealed that government borrowing totalled £15bn in May, the third highest amount ever recorded for that month. Although the figure was £800m higher than May last year, it did come in below analysts’ expectations and was £600m less than the Office for Budget Responsibility had predicted in its latest forecast.

Despite this, the data also showed that public sector net debt as a percentage of economic output has now risen to 99.8%. This was up 3.7 percentage points from last May’s figure, leaving this measure of debt at its highest level since 1961.

Analysis by the IFS has also highlighted the scale of the financial challenge awaiting whichever party wins the forthcoming General Election. The IFS said that, unless economic growth is stronger than expected, the incoming government will face a ‘trilemma,’ either having to raise taxes more than their manifestos imply, implement cuts to some areas of public spending or allow the national debt to continue rising.

All details are correct at the time of writing (1 July 2024)

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice, and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individually tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of and reliefs from taxation are currently applied or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the investor’s individual circumstances. No part of this document may be reproduced without prior permission.

This material is intended for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Tees is a trading name of Tees Financial Limited, regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority and registered number 211314.

Tees Financial Limited is registered in England and Wales and registered number 4342506.

Election Debrief: 5 July 2024

Posted on 7 July 202428 March 2025 by Sophie Soraf

Following weeks of intense campaigning, the electorate has delivered its verdict. As widely expected, the Labour Party has secured a historic landslide victory, soaring past the magic 326 seat mark in the early hours of Friday morning.

With the party now occupying over 400 seats, Sir Keir Starmer’s promise of “change” has certainly struck a chord with the electorate. In his victory speech, the incoming Prime Minister said, “We did it! You campaigned for it. You fought for it. You voted for it, and now it has arrived. Change begins now.”

The Conservatives sustained huge losses in the party’s worst-ever election performance. Outgoing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said, “The British people have delivered a sobering verdict tonight, there is much to learn… and I take responsibility for the loss.” He continued, “Today, power will change hands peacefully and orderly, with goodwill on all sides. That is something that should give us all confidence in our country’s stability and future.”

Mr Sunak, who has been in office since October 2022, managed to hold on to his seat in Richmond and Northallerton in Yorkshire; meanwhile, a raft of senior Conservative MPs, including former Prime Minister Liz Truss, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, and Jacob Rees-Mogg, lost their seats. In Wales, the Conservative Party lost all of its seats.

It was a record-breaking night for the Liberal Democrats, who secured over 70 seats. In early Friday morning, Sir Ed Davey said his party was set to achieve its “best result for a century.” Meanwhile, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage was voted an MP for the first time, and the Green Party broke records.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) suffered a dismal night, with SNP leader John Swinney describing the General Election result as “very, very difficult and damaging” for the party. The result greatly diminishes the chances of an independence referendum.

In the first July General Election since 1945, millions of voters went to polling stations on Thursday to have their say. However, early indications suggest an estimated voter turnout below 60% – the lowest in over 20 years.

Market reaction

In the run-up to the election, the markets were reasonably stable, with a strong Labour victory already priced in and investors hopeful of a pro-growth productivity-led agenda. As the markets opened following the results on 5 July, the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 both opened up, and sterling held steady after the exit polls came in on Thursday evening.

What now?

A new parliament will be summoned to meet on 9 July. The King’s Speech is scheduled for 17 July and is part of the State Opening of Parliament, before which no substantive parliamentary business can usually occur. The new government will then decide a date on which the summer recess will commence.

And a Budget?

We await the date of incoming Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ first Budget, where we will gain clarity on the new government’s fiscal priorities, where any changes to tax and spending will be announced. Ms Reeves said Labour would not hold a Budget without an independent forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), and this requires ten weeks’ notice to prepare.

Labour manifesto key pledges

Some of the new government’s key manifesto pledges include reforming planning rules, recruiting 6,500 new teachers and tackling immigration. Plans are expected to be funded by raising £8bn through abolishing the non-dom tax status, increasing Stamp Duty for foreign buyers, clamping down on those underpaying tax by closing ‘loopholes’ in the windfall tax on oil and gas firms, and introducing VAT on private school fees (Rachel Reeves has suggested this won’t be imposed until at least 2025). No changes were promised to personal tax rates and pensions. The Triple Lock is expected to be upheld, and the pensions landscape will be reviewed.

The bottom line

Whichever way you voted on 4 July, the country has acted decisively to provide a massive majority, and under Keir Starmer’s leadership, the hard work begins. As usual, we will closely monitor developments likely to impact your finances over the coming months. Looking after your financial future remains a priority. Please get in touch if you have any questions.

The value of investments can go down and up, and you may not get back the full amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

All details are correct at the time of writing (5 July 2024)

Tees Financial Limited is registered in England and Wales and registered number 4342506.

The end of Zero Hour Contracts: ‘Fire and Rehire’ no more

Posted on 3 July 202422 March 2025 by Sarah O'Sullivan

Labour has outlined significant employment law reforms, including the introduction of a single worker category, extending day-one rights, banning the practice of fire and rehire, and limiting the use of zero-hour contracts. These proposals could reshape employer-employee relationships across the UK.

Fire and rehire: What employers need to know

The controversial practice of “fire and rehire” made headlines in March 2022 when P&O Ferries dismissed around 800 workers. This tactic involves terminating employees and rehiring them on different, often less favorable, terms.

While fire and rehire is currently legal under UK employment law, employers must follow strict guidelines. Dismissals may be deemed fair if employers:

Engage in meaningful consultation: Employers should first consult employees and seek agreement on contract changes.
Demonstrate a sound business reason: Employers must have clear, evidence-backed justifications for the change.

Labour’s stance on fire and rehire

Labour has committed to banning fire and rehire practices. However, before this ban takes effect, employers should be aware of the government’s Statutory Code of Practice on Dismissal and Re-engagement, coming into force in July 2024. While the Code won’t prohibit fire and rehire, it will emphasize that it should be used as a last resort.

Risks of fire and rehire

Employers relying on fire and rehire practices face several risks, including:

Unfair dismissal claims: Employees may bring claims under the Employment Rights Act 1996.
Reputational damage: Poor handling of dismissals can harm brand reputation and employee morale.
Legal costs and disputes: Tribunal claims are costly, time-consuming, and disruptive.

To mitigate these risks, employers should prioritize transparent communication and consultation with employees to build understanding and reduce the likelihood of legal challenges.

Zero-hour contracts: Labour’s proposals

Labour has also promised to restrict the use of zero-hour contracts, which have faced criticism for their potential misuse by employers. Despite their flexibility, zero-hour contracts can leave workers without guaranteed hours or stable income.

What Labour plans to change

Curtailed use: While zero-hour contracts will not be completely banned, stricter regulations will apply.
Standard contracts: Workers with regular hours for 12 weeks or more must be offered a standard contract.
Worker choice: Labour claims workers can choose to remain on zero-hour contracts, but concerns remain that employers may pressure workers to do so.

Upcoming legislation on predictable work patterns

Regardless of Labour’s plans, employers should prepare for the Predictable Work Pattern Rights legislation, expected to take effect in September 2024. This will allow employees and agency workers to:

Request a predictable work pattern after 26 weeks of service.
Submit two applications within a 12-month period.

Best practices for employers

Employers are encouraged to consider alternatives to zero-hour contracts, such as:

Part-time contracts: Provide guaranteed hours for greater stability.
Annualised hours contracts: Offer flexible working patterns based on yearly commitments.
Fixed-term contracts: Suitable for seasonal work with clear end dates.
Overtime and training: Upskill existing staff to cover temporary or additional workloads.

By adopting fair and transparent employment practices, businesses can improve employee satisfaction, enhance their reputation, and reduce legal risks.

For further advice on how these changes may impact your business, contact our employment law team today.

Tees hands out Responsible Employer of the Year award

Posted on 1 July 202429 March 2025 by Sarah O'Sullivan

Tees sponsored a brand-new award for 2024 at the Eastern Echo Awards in Cambridge last week. Now in the third year, the awards took place on Wednesday 26 June to celebrate the East of England’s property industry.

The beautiful weather on the night meant the open space at Homerton College before the awards ceremony was fully utilised, with many people able to network and enjoy a drink. The black-tie event was attended by leaders from across the property sector and country, with our Commercial Property team coming together to present their award.

Partner and head of Commercial Property in Cambridge, Sarah Coates, said:

“It was a hugely enjoyable evening in a beautiful setting. The strength and depth of the projects and people nominated let alone the winners highlights the prowess of the Eastern region.”

The Eastern Echo Awards is targeted at projects, people, and places across the East of England and was judged by a panel with extensive experience and knowledge. The panel covered a range of property sectors, including office, industrial, retail, life science, and residential.

New for 2024, the award for Responsible Employer of the Year was sponsored by Tees, and organisers were asked to hear from a company, consultant, or project team that could demonstrate how successful it has been in delivering a responsible business strategy. Measurables were to include how businesses incorporated innovation, adoption of social responsibility, engagement in the local community, approach to the environment and governance or feedback from clients or a supply chain on the approach taken to do responsible business.

Tees was very pleased to hand the Responsible Employer of the Year award to Saunders Boston Architects.

Understanding the role of an Insolvency Practitioner: Your guide to financial recovery

Posted on 1 July 202420 March 2025 by Sarah O'Sullivan

Are you grappling with financial difficulties and unsure of the next steps? An insolvency practitioner could be the answer. This article delves into the world of insolvency practitioners, shedding light on their crucial role in aiding individuals and businesses navigate insolvency.

Defining an insolvency practitioner

An insolvency practitioner is a certified professional who specialises in advising and supporting individuals and businesses facing financial difficulties. They play a pivotal role in insolvency, managing and resolving financial issues fairly and efficiently.

In the United Kingdom, insolvency practitioners are regulated by recognised professional bodies such as the Insolvency Practitioners Association (IPA) and the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW). These bodies maintain high standards of professionalism and conduct, ensuring that insolvency practitioners possess the necessary expertise and experience to handle complex financial matters.

Insolvency practitioners are often appointed when individuals or businesses cannot pay their debts. They work closely with all parties involved, including creditors, debtors, and other stakeholders, to find the best possible solution for all parties.

Insolvency practitioners have a range of powers and responsibilities, such as:

Assessing the financial situation and determining the appropriate course of action
Administering formal insolvency procedures such as bankruptcy or liquidation
Investigating the affairs of the insolvent individual or company
Realising assets and distributing funds to creditors
Offering advice and support to debtors, helping them manage their finances and potentially avoid insolvency

Overall, insolvency practitioners play a crucial role in the financial landscape, aiding individuals and businesses in navigating challenging financial circumstances and finding the most suitable solutions for their specific situations.

Roles and responsibilities of an insolvency practitioner

One of the primary roles of an insolvency practitioner is to act as a mediator between debtors and creditors. They facilitate negotiations and find viable solutions to resolve financial difficulties. Whether negotiating payment plans, debt restructuring, or implementing insolvency procedures, their objective is to achieve the best possible outcome for all parties involved.

In addition to their mediation role, insolvency practitioners have specific duties and responsibilities depending on the type of insolvency case. For example, in a corporate insolvency case, they may be appointed as administrators, liquidators, or receivers. Their duties could include assessing the company’s financial situation, selling assets, distributing funds to creditors, and ensuring compliance with relevant laws and regulations.

In personal insolvency cases, such as bankruptcy or Individual Voluntary Arrangements (IVAs), insolvency practitioners assist individuals in managing their debt and finding the most suitable solutions. They assess the debtor’s financial situation, propose repayment plans, negotiate with creditors, and oversee the implementation of agreed-upon arrangements.

Overall, insolvency practitioners guide individuals and businesses through complex financial difficulties. Their expertise, knowledge of insolvency laws, and commitment to finding fair resolutions make them invaluable in helping people regain control of their financial situations.

Choosing the Right Insolvency Practitioner

When facing insolvency, choosing the right practitioner to guide you through the process is crucial. With so many practitioners out there, it can be overwhelming to make the right choice. However, considering certain factors can help you make an informed decision.

One of the most important factors to consider when choosing an insolvency practitioner is their qualifications and experience. Insolvency proceedings are complex, requiring a practitioner with the right expertise to handle your case effectively. Look for practitioners licensed by recognised professional bodies such as the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) or the Insolvency Practitioners Association (IPA).

Experience is equally important when it comes to dealing with insolvency. An experienced insolvency practitioner has likely encountered various scenarios and can provide valuable insights and solutions tailored to your situation. They have a deep understanding of insolvency laws and regulations, ensuring that your case is managed efficiently.

Furthermore, it is recommended that you assess the insolvency practitioner’s reputation and track record. Reading client testimonials, reviews, and case studies can give you an idea of their past successes and how they handle their clients’ needs.

Lastly, consider the practitioner’s communication style and approach. Insolvency proceedings can be stressful, and having a practitioner who communicates clearly and empathetically can make the process smoother. A good practitioner should be transparent about the costs, timelines, and potential outcomes.

Considering these factors, you can choose the right insolvency practitioner to provide you with the necessary support and expertise during this challenging time.

Understanding the cost of hiring an insolvency practitioner

When grappling with financial difficulties, hiring an insolvency practitioner can be crucial to resolving your financial situation. However, it’s important to understand the cost implications associated with their services.

Insolvency practitioners charge fees for their professional services, which are typically based on the complexity and duration of the case. The main types of fees you may encounter include:

Fixed fees are predetermined fees for specific services, such as assisting with Individual Voluntary Arrangements (IVAs) or bankruptcy proceedings. Fixed fees provide transparency and allow you to budget accordingly.
Hourly rates: Some insolvency practitioners charge hourly for the time spent working on your case. Hourly rates can vary depending on the practitioner’s experience and the nature of the insolvency matter.
Percentage fees: In certain cases, insolvency practitioners may charge a percentage of the funds they recover or distribute to creditors. This fee structure is commonly used in liquidation or administration scenarios.

Several factors can influence the cost of hiring an insolvency practitioner. These factors include:

The complexity of the case: The more complex the insolvency matter, the more time and expertise the practitioner requires, which can result in higher fees.
Size of the business or assets involved: The size or the value of the assets can impact the cost of the insolvency proceedings. Larger businesses or higher-value assets may require more extensive work, leading to increased fees.
Level of cooperation from stakeholders: The level of cooperation from creditors, directors, and other stakeholders involved in the insolvency process can affect the overall cost. Delays caused by non-cooperation can prolong the proceedings and increase expenses.

Discussing the fees and charges with your chosen insolvency practitioner upfront is important to ensure transparency and avoid surprises. Additionally, consider obtaining quotes from multiple practitioners to compare costs and services offered.