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December 2024: Inflation rises, growth stalls, markets shift

Posted on 8 January 202528 March 2025 by Sophie Soraf

Headline inflation at eight-month high

Release of the latest inflation statistics showed consumer prices are now rising at their fastest rate since March 2024, while last month also saw Bank of England (BoE) policymakers become more divided over the need to cut interest rates.

Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate – which compares prices in the current month with the same period a year earlier – rose from 2.3% in October to 2.6% in November. ONS said the rise was primarily driven by an increase in motor fuel and clothing prices, which was only partially offset by a drop in air fares.

November’s CPI rise was, though, in line with expectations expressed in a Reuters poll of economists. Additionally, there was some relief in relation to underlying price pressures, with services inflation – a measure closely monitored by the BoE – remaining unchanged at 5.0%.

The latest decision of the BoE’s interest-rate setting body was announced a day after the inflation release, with the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voting by a 6-3 majority to maintain Bank Rate at 4.75%. The three dissenting voices each preferred an immediate 0.25 percentage point reduction in order to boost growth, but the six-strong majority, which included BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, expressed concern about wage growth and ‘inflation persistence.’

Commenting after announcing the Committee’s decision, Mr Bailey said he still believed the path for interest rates was “downwards.” However, he added, “We think a gradual approach to future interest rate cuts remains right, but with the heightened uncertainty in the economy we can’t commit to when or by how much we will cut rates in the coming year.”

The next MPC meeting is scheduled for early next month, with the outcome of the Committee’s deliberations due to be announced on 6 February.

UK economy has ‘largely stalled’

Figures released last month by ONS showed the UK economy shrank for a second successive month in October, while more recent survey evidence suggests it remained ‘largely stalled’ as 2024 drew to an end.

The latest official monthly gross domestic product (GDP) statistics revealed that economic output declined by 0.1% in October, defying analysts’ expectations for a small monthly expansion. October’s decline followed a similar-sized contraction in September and represents the first consecutive monthly drop in GDP since March and April 2020.

Revised data subsequently released by ONS also revealed that the economy performed worse than previously thought during earlier parts of last year. The updated statistics showed a growth rate of 0.4% across the second quarter, down from a previously published figure of 0.5%, while the economy is now estimated to have produced zero growth in the third quarter of 2024, down from an initial estimate of 0.1%.

The current economic malaise was also highlighted in updated growth projections published last month by the BoE. The Bank now estimates the UK will have seen no growth during the final three months of 2024.

Preliminary data from the latest S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also points to a loss of economic momentum. While December’s flash headline growth indicator did remain at November’s 50.5 level, this left the Index only marginally above the 50.0 no change threshold.

S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “The flash PMI data for December indicate the UK economy remained largely stalled at the end of 2024. New orders fell in December for the first time in over a year, reflecting a deterioration in demand as a deepening downturn in manufacturing shows growing signs of spreading to the services economy.”

Markets (Data compiled by TOMD)

Although most major indices closed 2024 higher year-on-year, trading at month end was mixed.

US markets outperformed Europe in 2024. In the US, major indices registered double-digit annual gains, supported by interest rate cuts, Trump’s return to the White House and enthusiasm for AI. The Dow closed the year over 12% higher on 42,544.22, while the tech-orientated NASDAQ closed the year up over 28% on 19,310.79.

Meanwhile, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed the year over 8% higher on 4,895.98. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 ended the year on 39,894.54, gaining over 19% in 2024, despite retreating on the last trading day of the year from a five-month high reached the previous session.

In the UK, the blue-chip FTSE 100 index closed December on 8,173.02, a gain of just under 6% for 2024 as a whole, locking in gains for a fourth straight year. The domestically focused FTSE 250 closed the year just under 5% higher on 20,622.61, while the FTSE AIM closed on 719.63, a loss of over 5% in the year.

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.20 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.25 against sterling and at $1.03 against the euro.

Gold closed the year trading around $2,637 a troy ounce, an annual gain of over 26%, its strongest since 2010. The price was supported by various factors including central bank reserve purchases and rising geopolitical tensions, prompting investors to seek safe haven assets. Brent crude closed the year trading at around $74 a barrel, an annual loss of over 2%. At year end, robust economic data from China and a weakening US dollar supported the oil price.

Index	Value (31/12/24)	Movement since 29/11/24
FTSE 100	8,173.02	-1.38%
FTSE 250	20,622.61	-0.72%
FTSE AIM	719.63	-1.76%
Euro Stoxx 50	4,895.98	+1.91%
NASDAQ Composite	19,310.79	+0.48%
Dow Jones	42,544.22	-5.27%
Nikkei 225	39,894.54	+4.41%

*Closing value 30/12/24 (market was closed 31/12/24)

Retail sales post small November rise

Official retail sales data released last month showed a small rise in sales volumes during November, although more recent survey evidence continues to show a tough retail environment despite another modest rise in consumer sentiment.

Figures released last month by ONS revealed that retail sales volumes rose by 0.2% in November. While this did represent a bounce back from October’s 0.7% decline, the figure was below economists’ expectations and left sales in the three months to November up by only 0.3%, the weakest performance according to this measure since the three months to June 2024.

Evidence from the recently released CBI Distributive Trades Survey also suggests retailers had a relatively weak run-up to Christmas. The CBI said retailers had ‘endured a gloomy festive period’ and looking ahead, they expected ‘sales to fall again in January’ with wholesalers and motor traders ‘braced for sharper sales declines.’

Data from GfK’s latest consumer confidence index, however, did offer the retail sector some hope for the new year, with the long-running survey showing households becoming modestly more cheery about their finances for the year ahead. Overall, December’s headline sentiment figure rose to -17 from -18 in November, lifting consumer morale to a four-month high.

Wage growth surprise: vacancies fall again

The latest batch of labour market statistics revealed a surprise pick-up in pay growth as well as a fall in both the level of job vacancies and the number of staff on payrolls.

According to the latest ONS data, average weekly earnings excluding bonuses rose at an annual rate of 5.2% in the three months to October 2024; this was up from 4.9% across the preceding three-month period and higher than a consensus forecast of 5.0% from a Reuters poll of economists. ONS Director of Statistics Liz McKeown commented, “After slowing steadily for over a year, growth in pay excluding bonuses increased slightly in the latest period driven by stronger growth in private sector pay.”

Job vacancies, however, fell once again, with 31,000 fewer reported in the September–November period compared to the previous three months. The latest release also revealed a drop in the number of people on payrolls, with provisional data indicating a 35,000 decline in November.

Last month, Reed Chief Executive Officer, James Reed, also noted that his firm had seen a “significant decline” in the number of jobs being advertised, while a number of surveys highlighted a slowdown in recruitment activity in the face of rising employers’ National Insurance Contributions.

Key takeaways:

Data from the ONS shows the CPI 12-month rate rose from 2.3% in October to 2.6% in November
UK economic output declined 0.1% in October, defying analysts’ expectations for a small monthly expansion.
Retailers ‘endured a gloomy festive period’ according to the CBI, who expect ‘sales to fall again in January’

All details are correct at the time of writing (02 January 2025)

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from, taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.

This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Tees is a trading name of Tees Financial Limited which is regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority—registered number 211314.

Tees Financial Limited is registered in England and Wales—registered number 4342506.

UK economic growth forecast upgraded

Posted on 3 October 202428 March 2025 by Sophie Soraf

Economic review September 2024

On markets at the end of September, with investors and traders closely monitoring regional developments.

At month end, stocks retreated following implications from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that further interest rate cuts are likely to occur at a more measured pace.

Across the pond, the Dow Jones closed the month up 1.85% on 42,330.15. The tech-orientated NASDAQ closed the month up 2.68% on 18,189.17.

On home shores, the FTSE 100 index closed the month on 8,236.95, a loss of 1.67%, while the FTSE 250 closed the month 0.16% lower on 21,053.19. The FTSE AIM closed on 740.43, a loss of 4.15% in the month. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed the month on 5,000.45, up 0.86%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 closed September on 37,919.55, a monthly loss of 1.88%.

On the foreign exchanges, the euro closed the month at €1.20 against sterling. The US dollar closed at $1.33 against sterling and at $1.11 against the euro.

Brent crude closed September trading at $71.65 a barrel, a loss over the month of 6.74%. The conflict in the Middle East is causing some price volatility. OPEC+ plans to begin increasing production in December is pressurising prices, while weak demand in China also weighs. Gold closed the month trading at $2,629.95 a troy ounce, a monthly gain of 4.64%. Prices retreated at month end, reversing recent strong gains as increased safe-haven demand prompted a rally in the precious metal.

Index	Value (30/09/24)	Movement since 30/08/24
FTSE 100	8,236.95	-1.67%
FTSE 250	21,053.19	-0.16%
FTSE AIM	740.43	-4.15%
Euro Stoxx 50	5,000.45	+0.86%
NASDAQ Composite	18,189.17	+2.68%
Dow Jones	42,330.15	+1.85%
Nikkei 225	37,919.55	-1.88%

Retail sales stronger than expected

The latest official retail sales statistics revealed a healthy growth in sales volumes during August, while more recent survey data points to further modest improvement both last month and in October.

Figures released by ONS showed that total retail sales volumes rose by 1.0% in August, following upwardly revised monthly growth of 0.7% in July. ONS reported that August’s rise, which was higher than economists had predicted, was boosted by warmer weather and end-of-season sales.

Evidence from last month’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey also suggests retailers expect the summer sales improvement to have continued into the autumn period, with its annual retail sales gauge rising to +4 in September from -27 in August. In addition, retailers’ expectations for sales in the month ahead (October) rose to +5; this represents the strongest response to this question since April 2023.

CBI Principal Economist Martin Sartorius said retailers would “welcome” the modest sales growth reported in the latest survey. He also added a note of caution saying, “While some firms within the retail sector are beginning to see tailwinds from rising household incomes, others report that consumer spending habits are still being affected by the increase in prices over the last few years.”

National debt looks set to soar

Analysis published last month by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) suggests national debt could triple over the coming decades if future governments take no action.

In its latest Fiscal Risks and Sustainability Report, the OBR said debt is currently on course to rise from almost 100% of annual GDP to 274% of GDP over the next 50 years due to pressures including an ageing population, climate change and geopolitical risks. It also warned that, without any change in policy or a return to post-war productivity levels, the public finances were unsustainable over the long term, and that ‘something’s got to give.’

The OBR is also tasked with producing a more detailed five-year outlook for the country’s finances that will be published alongside Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ first Budget, due to be delivered on 30 October. The Chancellor has previously warned the Budget will involve “difficult decisions” on tax, spending and welfare.

Data released last month by ONS showed that government borrowing in August totalled £13.7bn, the highest figure for that month since 2021. This took borrowing in the first five months of the financial year to £64.1bn, £6bn higher than the OBR forecast at the last Budget.

All details are correct at the time of writing (1 October 2024)

It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this document is based on our current understanding and can be subject to change without notice and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK. We cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Levels and bases of, and reliefs from taxation are those currently applying or proposed and are subject to change; their value depends on the individual circumstances of the investor. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without prior permission.

This material is intended for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Tees is a trading name of Tees Financial Limited, which is regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered number 211314.

Tees Financial Limited is registered in England and Wales. Registered number 4342506.

Spotlight on EIS vs VCT and AIM investing

Posted on 6 April 202328 March 2025 by Sophie Soraf

If you’re an investor looking to diversify your portfolio and maximise tax efficiency, you could consider more complex investments such as an Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS), Venture Capital Trust (VCT) or shares in Alternative Investment Market (AIM) listed companies, providing you are comfortable holding high-risk investments.

EIS vs VCTs explained

Enterprise Investment Schemes and Venture Capital Trusts are investments made into small, unquoted trading companies which are trying to raise capital in their early stages of development.

The rationale behind both EIS and VCT schemes is that they benefit the economy by promoting innovation amongst the small higher-risk business community which in turn drives productivity, creates jobs and boosts economic growth.

EIS and VCT schemes are appealing to investors who are typically seeking greater diversity across their portfolio as the investments held have a low correlation to more mainstream holdings in pensions and Individual Savings Accounts (ISAs).

What tax benefits do these schemes offer?

Since their launch in the 1990s, EIS and VCT schemes have become increasingly popular, in large part due to the tax benefits they enjoy. Schemes such as these have been particularly important to investors who may be struggling to find ways to invest tax-efficiently, for example those who are close to breaching pension allowances, but who still want to save for retirement in a tax-efficient way.

There are a number of generous tax breaks. For example, when you invest in an EIS or a VCT, you get income tax relief of 30%: invest £100,000 and you could get up to £30,000 back. In order to qualify for these benefits an EIS investment must be held for at least three years and a VCT for five years, but investors would normally expect to hold the investments for longer.

For EIS schemes there is also ‘deferral relief’ which effectively allows you to defer capital gains tax payable on profit earned from an investment by reinvesting it in an EIS. So you only have to pay the CGT due on your initial investment once you exit from your EIS, but you could carry on deferring the tax bill by reinvesting your gain indefinitely.

There are also ways of using an EIS to minimise your inheritance tax bill. After two years from when you buy the EIS-qualifying shares, as long as you still hold the shares on death, your investment should be free of inheritance tax liability. There is no inheritance tax advantage with VCTs however, as when you invest you acquire shares in the trust, rather than in the underlying companies.

How do EIS and VCT schemes differ?

In the case of an EIS, investors typically purchase shares directly in firms, while VCTs are listed companies and follow a similar approach to that of investment trusts, allowing investors to spread the investment risk over a number of companies by subscribing for shares in the VCT itself.

For the 2023-24 tax year, the following limits apply:

For the 2023-24 tax year the following limits apply:

For an EIS, the maximum annual investment you can claim tax relief on is £1m. This is increased to £2m, as long as at least £1m of this is invested in ‘knowledge-intensive’ companies.

Investments in an EIS can be carried back to the previous tax year.

For a VCT, the maximum annual investment you can claim tax relief on is £200,000. New investments in VCTs cannot be carried back to previous tax years.

VCTs may pay out tax free dividends to investors, although early-stage companies may not be able to afford this, without affecting growth, so investors certainly shouldn’t rely on receiving dividends. Dividends payable from EIS are taxable.

What are the risks of EIS and VCT schemes?

Despite the attractive tax benefits of these schemes, they are only suitable for people who are comfortable holding high-risk investments. This is because EIS and VCTs invest in smaller, fledgling companies that are inherently likely to be more fragile enterprises and could fail.

Another risk to consider is the illiquid nature of the investments as they are harder to sell than mainstream investments such as listed shares or unit trusts. As a result, such schemes are considered to be high risk and will normally only be suitable for a relatively small proportion of your overall portfolio.

If you are considering a long-term investment and want to maximise tax efficiency and diversify your portfolio, our independent financial advisers can provide you with expert guidance on such schemes, advising on the full range of investments and ensuring that the associated risks are fully understood.

Alternative Investment Market (AIM) investing

The Alternative Investment Market was launched 25 years ago (in 1995) with the aim of helping smaller companies that needed capital to grow but couldn’t afford the costs associated with listing on the London Stock Exchange, or were unable to meet the stringent requirements needed to float. As at Feb 2023 there were around 727 companies listed on AIM, with a combined market value of over £90bn.

Not all AIM-listed companies are start-up companies, but they tend to be smaller and potentially higher risk than those listed on the FTSE. The main investors in AIM shares will therefore normally be institutions and wealthy individuals.

What are the tax advantages of investing in AIM-listed shares?

Since 2014 investors have been able to include AIM-listed shares in their stocks and shares ISAs, meaning there is no Capital Gains Tax to pay on disposal and no Income Tax payable on dividends. More and more people, therefore, have considered including AIM-listed shares within their ISA portfolios in recent years.

Furthermore, most AIM stocks qualify for Business Property Relief and are exempt from IHT if held for more than two years, making this type of investment one for consideration when planning for inheritance tax.

As described earlier in this article, AIM shareholders are also able to benefit from Income Tax relief and Capital Gains Tax relief when the investments are held via an Enterprise Investment Scheme or Venture Capital Trust.

Considering EIS, VCT and AIM investments? Talk to us

These types of investments have grown in popularity over recent years, as they are now among the few remaining tax-efficient investment avenues still available to wealthier investors.

If you are unsure as to whether investing in tax-efficient vehicles such as EIS, VCT or AIM is suitable for you or you need professional advice on any other area of saving and investing, we are only a phone call away.

Don’t invest unless you’re prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high‑risk investment, and you are unlikely to be protected if something goes wrong – two-minute read IMPORTANT information about key risks.

Tax rules can change, and tax benefits depend on individual circumstances. The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the amount you invested. The past is not a guide to future performance and past performance may not necessarily be repeated.

This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. It is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Some information quoted was obtained from external sources we consider to be reliable.

Tees is a trading name of Tees Financial Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered number 211314. Tees Financial Limited is registered in England and Wales. Registered number 4342506.